Publications Details

SOARCA surry power station uncertainty analysis: Parameter methodology and insights

Jones, Joseph A.; Osborn, Douglas; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey

The State-of-the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) project for the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station (the pilot boiling-water reactor) and Surry Power Station (the pilot pressurized-water reactor) represents the most complex deterministic MELCOR analyses performed to date. Uncertainty analyses focusing on input parameter uncertainty are now under way for one scenario at each pilot plant. Analyzing the uncertainty in parameters requires technical justification for the selection of each parameter to include in the analyses and defensible rationale for the associated distributions. This paper describes the methodology employed in the selection of parameters and corresponding distributions for the Surry uncertainty analysis, and insights from applying the methodology to the MELCOR parameters.