Publications Details

Risk-Informed Access Delay Timeline Development

Osborn, Douglas M.; Brooks, Dusty M.; Thompson, Andrew D.

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program is developing a new method to modernize how access delay timelines are developed and utilized in physical security system evaluations. This new method utilizes Bayesian methods to combine subject matter expert judgement and small performance test datasets in a consistent and defensible way. It will also allow a more holistic view of delay performance that provides distributions of task times and task success probabilities to account for tasks that, if failed, would result in failure of the attack. This paper describes the methodology and its application to an example problem, demonstrating that it can be applied to access delay timeline analyses to summarize delay performance using subjective and objective information.