Publications Details
Engineering peace and security interventions: Dynamics in Somalia
Peacekeepmg and humamtanan aid interventions in Somalia have attempted to bring peace and stability to the country and region for more than twenty-five years. Different dynamics characterize four distinct phases of these interventions, determining the likelihood of conflict transformation. These dynamics display archetypal system behaviors representative of other persistent conflicts in Africa during the same time period. Field interviews combined with comparative statistics informed system models of conflict dynamics in Africa and Somalia. The models explored the relative impact of intervention feedback loops and key levers on potential for conflict transformation. It is shown that sustainable peace depends less on the appropriate sequencing of aid than on transparency, trust, and cooperation between various intervention actors and stakeholders to enable accountability at the local level. Technical innovations are needed to build transparency and trust between intervention stakeholders without increasing security risks. A potential solution is proposed that incorporates predictive analytics into peer-to-peer networks for monitoring interventions.