Publications

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We present the initial stages of development of new agent-based computational methods to generate and test hypotheses about linkages between environmental change and international instability. This report summarizes the first year's effort of an originally proposed three-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. The preliminary work focused on a set of simple agent-based models and benefited from lessons learned in previous related projects and case studies of human response to climate change and environmental scarcity. Our approach was to define a qualitative model using extremely simple cellular agent models akin to Lovelock's Daisyworld and Schelling's segregation model. Such models do not require significant computing resources, and users can modify behavior rules to gain insights. One of the difficulties in agent-based modeling is finding the right balance between model simplicity and real-world representation. Our approach was to keep agent behaviors as simple as possible during the development stage (described herein) and to ground them with a realistic geospatial Earth system model in subsequent years. This work is directed toward incorporating projected climate data--including various C02 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report--and ultimately toward coupling a useful agent-based model to a general circulation model.3

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We summarize the results of a project to develop evolutionary computing methods for the design of behaviors of embodied agents in the form of autonomous vehicles. We conceived and implemented a strategy called graduated embodiment. This method allows high-level behavior algorithms to be developed using genetic programming methods in a low-fidelity, disembodied modeling environment for migration to high-fidelity, complex embodied applications. This project applies our methods to the problem domain of robot navigation using adaptive waypoints, which allow navigation behaviors to be ported among autonomous mobile robots with different degrees of embodiment, using incremental adaptation and staged optimization. Our approach to biomimetic behavior engineering is a hybrid of human design and artificial evolution, with the application of evolutionary computing in stages to preserve building blocks and limit search space. The methods and tools developed for this project are directly applicable to other agent-based modeling needs, including climate-related conflict analysis, multiplayer training methods, and market-based hypothesis evaluation.

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewing the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.

GENESIS Version 2.0 is a general circulation model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and is the principal code that is used by paleoclimatologists to model climate at various times throughout Earth's history. The primary result of this LDRD project has been the development of a distributed-memory parallel version of GENESIS, leading to a significant performance enhancement on commodity-based, large-scale computing platforms like the CPlant. The shared-memory directives of the original version were replaced by MPI calls in the new version of GENESIS. This was accomplished by means of parallel decomposition over latitude strip domains. The code achieved a parallel speedup of four times that of the shared-memory parallel version at R15 resolution. T106 resolution runs 20 times faster than the NCAR serial version on 20 nodes of the CPlant. As part of the project, GENESIS was used to model the climatic effects of an orbiting debris ring due to a large planetary impact event.

This project makes use of ''biomimetic behavioral engineering'' in which adaptive strategies used by animals in the real world are applied to the development of autonomous robots. The key elements of the biomimetic approach are to observe and understand a survival behavior exhibited in nature, to create a mathematical model and simulation capability for that behavior, to modify and optimize the behavior for a desired robotics application, and to implement it. The application described in this report is dynamic soaring, a behavior that certain sea birds use to extract flight energy from laminar wind velocity gradients in the shallow atmospheric boundary layer directly above the ocean surface. Theoretical calculations, computational proof-of-principle demonstrations, and the first instrumented experimental flight test data for dynamic soaring are presented to address the feasibility of developing dynamic soaring flight control algorithms to sustain the flight of unmanned airborne vehicles (UAVs). Both hardware and software were developed for this application. Eight-foot custom foam sailplanes were built and flown in a steep shear gradient. A logging device was designed and constructed with custom software to record flight data during dynamic soaring maneuvers. A computational toolkit was developed to simulate dynamic soaring in special cases and with a full 6-degree of freedom flight dynamics model in a generalized time-dependent wind field. Several 3-dimensional visualization tools were built to replay the flight simulations. A realistic aerodynamics model of an eight-foot sailplane was developed using measured aerodynamic derivatives. Genetic programming methods were developed and linked to the simulations and visualization tools. These tools can now be generalized for other biomimetic behavior applications.

Computational simulations of the impacts of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (SL9) fragments on Jupiter have provided a framework for interpreting the observations. A reasonably consistent picture has emerged, along with a more detailed understanding of atmospheric collisional processes. Several aspects of Earth-impact hazards can be re-evaluated with knowledge gained from observations and from simulations of SL9. In particular, the threat of impact-generated plumes to satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) should be recognized. Preliminary 2-D computational simulations suggest that impacts of a size that recur about once per century generate plumes that rise to nearly 1000 kilometers over an area thousands of kilometers in diameter. Detailed modeling of such plumes should be carried out to quantify this threat to satellites in the near-Earth environment. Careful observations of high-energy atmospheric entry events should be made using both satellite and ground-based instruments to provide validation for these computational models.

We have performed computational simulations to determine how energy from a large hypervelocity impact on the Earth's surface would couple to its interior. Because of the first-order axial symmetry of both the impact energy source and the stress-wave velocity structure of the Earth, a disproportionate amount of energy is dissipated along the axis defined by the impact point and its antipode (point opposite the impact). For a symmetric and homogeneous Earth model, all the impact energy that is radiated as seismic waves into the Earth at a given takeoff angle (ray parameter), independent of azimuthal direction, is refocused (minus attenuation) on the axis of symmetry, regardless of the number of reflections and refractions it has experienced. Material on or near the axis of symmetry experiences more strain cycles with much greater amplitude than elsewhere, and therefore experiences more irreversible heating. The focusing is most intense in the upper mantle, within the asthenosphere, where seismic energy is most effectively converted to heat. For a sufficiently energetic impact, this mechanism might generate enough local heating to create an isostatic instability leading to uplift, possibly resulting in rifting, volcanism, or other rearrangement of the interior dynamics of the planet. These simulations demonstrate how hypervelocity impact energy can be transported to the Earth's interior, supporting the possibility of a causal link between large impacts on Earth and major internally-driven geophysical processes. © 1995.