Publications

The aim of this paper is to understand the numerous nuclear-related agreements that involve India and Pakistan, and in so doing identify starting points for future confidence-creating and confidence-building projects. Existing nuclear-related agreements provide a framework under which various projects can be proposed that foster greater nuclear transparency and cooperation in South Asia. The basic assumptions and arguments underlying this paper can be summarized as follows: (1) Increased nuclear transparency between India and Pakistan is a worthwhile objective, as it will lead to the irreversibility of extant nuclear agreements, the prospects of future agreements; and the balance of opacity and transparency required for stability in times of crises; (2) Given the current state of Indian and Pakistani relations, incremental progress in increased nuclear transparency is the most likely future outcome; and (3) Incremental progress can be achieved by enhancing the information exchange required by existing nuclear-related agreements.

To promote cooperation in South Asia on environmental research, an international working group comprised of participants from Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the US convened at the Soaltee Hotel in Kathmandu, Nepal, September 12 to 14, 1999. The workshop was sponsored in part by the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, through funding provided by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nonproliferation and National Security. The CMC promotes collaborations among scientists and researchers in regions throughout the world as a means of achieving common regional security objectives. In the long term, the workshop organizers and participants are interested in the significance of regional information sharing as a means to build confidence and reduce conflict. The intermediate interests of the group focus on activities that might eventually foster regional management of some aspects of water resources utilization. The immediate purpose of the workshop was to begin the implementation phase of a project to collect and share water quality information at a number of river and coastal estuary locations throughout the region. The workshop participants achieved four objectives: (1) gaining a better understanding of the partner organizations involved; (2) garnering the support of existing regional organizations promoting environmental cooperation in South Asia; (3) identifying sites within the region at which data is to be collected; and (4) instituting a data and information collection and sharing process.

The potential for cooperation between India and Pakistan is substantial. Topics as widely varying as national security, the environment and trade hold the potential for improved bilateral relations. This paper looks at a few areas in which monitoring technology could contribute to enhancing cooperative border agreements between the two nations. The goal of the paper is not to provide prescriptive solutions to regional problems, but to expand the number of options being considered for improving Indian-Pakistan relations. Many of the impediments to bilateral progress are a result of a history of conflict and mistrust. By utilizing technical monitoring and inspections, each side can begin to replace suspicion and doubt with knowledge and information useful in making informed political, economic and military decisions. At the same time, technical monitoring and inspections can build confidence through common interactions. India and Pakistan have pledged to resolve their disputes, including Kashmir, through dialogue. Implementation of that pledge is influenced by a number of factors, including changes in the political systems and the fortunes of the leadership. Events of the past year and a half have severely tested these two governments' ability to move forward along a constructive and positive path. Testing of new missile systems both preceded and followed testing of nuclear weapons in May 1998. Both countries disregarded subsequent international displeasure as they proceeded to openly declare their respective nuclear capability. Their brief engagement with each other in February 1999 and movement toward a rapprochement diluted international condemnation of their nuclear activity. Within a recent period of nine months however, progress in the dialogue has been stalled first by the Pakistani move in Kashmir in May 1999, then by the Indian election in the summer of 1999 and most recently by the military coup in Pakistan.

Cooperative monitoring holds the promise of utilizing many technologies from conflicts of the past to implement agreements of peace in the future. Important approaches to accomplish this are to develop the framework for assessing monitoring opportunities and to provide education and training on the technologies and experience available for sharing with others. The Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories is working closely with agencies throughout the federal government, academics at home and abroad, and regional organizations to provide the technical tools needed to assess, design, analyze, and implement these cooperative agreements. In doing so, the goals of building regional confidence and increasing trust and communication can be furthered.

As an ongoing part of the collaborative efforts between the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) at Sandia National Laboratories, the United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (ACDA), and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), staff from the CMC served as faculty in conducting a workshop in Shanghai, China. Sponsor of the workshop was the Regional Centre for Strategic Studies (RCSS) based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. The workshop included participants from throughout South Asia and China. The CMC presented four sessions related to the role of monitoring technologies in promoting regional security and building confidence among nations. Participation in these workshops supports U.S. efforts to further regional cooperation and promote arms control, nonproliferation and other cooperative securily measures and supplements efforts funded by DOE and ACDA over the past four years. The RCSS Shanghai meeting permitted a continued CMC involvement in regionally conducted training for anew generation of leaders in government, the military, and academia throughout South Asia and China. Nuclear issues are clearly a dominant South Asian concern since the nuclear tests of May 1998. However, there remains a strong interest in identifying opportunities for increased trade and reduced tensions in other areas. The RCSS and other regional organizations are enthusiastic about continued CMC involvement in future regional courses.

Cooperative monitoring systems can play an important part in promoting the implementation of regional cooperative security agreements. These agreements advance the national security interests of the United States in a post Cold War environment. Regional issues as widely varying as nuclear nonproliferation, trade and environmental pollution can be the source of tensions which may escalate to armed conflict which could have global implications. The Office of National Security Policy Analysis at the US Department of Energy (DOE) has an interest in seeking ways to promote regional cooperation that can reduce the threats posed by regional conflict. DOE technologies and technical expertise can contribute to developing solutions to a wide variety of these international problems. Much of this DOE expertise has been developed in support of the US nuclear weapons and arms control missions. It is now being made available to other agencies and foreign governments in their search for regional security and cooperation. This report presents two examples of interest to DOE in which monitoring technologies could be employed to promote cooperation through experimentation. The two scenarios include nuclear transparency in Northeast Asia and environmental restoration in the Black Sea. Both offer the potential for the use of technology to promote regional cooperation. The issues associated with both of these monitoring applications are presented along with examples of appropriate monitoring technologies, potential experiments and potential DOE contributions to the scenarios.

The Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) seeks to reestablish a U. S. program of manned and unmanned space exploration. The President has called for a program which includes a space station element, a manned habitation of the moon, and a human exploration of Mars. The NASA Synthesis Group has developed four significantly different architectures for the SEI program. One key element of a space exploration effort is the power required to support the missions. The Power Specialty Team of the Synthesis Group was tasked with assessing and evaluating the power requirements and candidate power technologies for such missions. Inputs to the effort came from existing NASA studies as well as other government agency inputs such as those from DOD and DOE. In addition, there were industry and university briefings and results of solicitations from the AIAA and the general public as a part of the NASA outreach effort. Because of the variety of power needs in the SEI program, there will be a need for multiple power system technologies including solar, nuclear and electrochemical. Due to the high rocket masses required to propel payloads to the moon and beyond to Mars, there is great emphasis placed on the need for high power density and high energy density systems. Power system technology development work is needed and results will determine the ultimate technology selections.