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Development of a Risk-Based Probabilistic Performance-Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems - 2nd Edition

Ho, Clifford K.; Arnold, Bill W.; Cochran, John R.

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology has been developed to assist designers, regulators, and stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report describes the method, the software tools that were developed, and an example that illustrates the probabilistic performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon gas flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results from uncertainty analyses, sensitivity analyses, and alternative design comparisons are presented for each of the performance metrics. The benefits from this methodology include a quantification of uncertainty, the identification of parameters most important to performance (to prioritize site characterization and monitoring activities), and the ability to compare alternative designs using probabilistic evaluations of performance (for cost savings).

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ALEGRA Validation Studies for Regular, Mach, and Double Mach Shock Reflection in Gas Dynamics

Gruebel, Marilyn M.; Cochran, John R.

In this report we describe the performance of the ALEGRA shock wave physics code on a set of gas dynamic shock reflection problems that have associated experimental pressure data. These reflections cover three distinct regimes of oblique shock reflection in gas dynamics--regular, Mach, and double Mach reflection. For the selected data, the use of an ideal gas equation of state is appropriate, thus simplifying to a considerable degree the task of validating the shock wave computational capability of ALEGRA in the application regime of the experiments. We find good agreement of ALEGRA with reported experimental data for sufficient grid resolution. We discuss the experimental data, the nature and results of the corresponding ALEGRA calculations, and the implications of the presented experiment--calculation comparisons.

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Development of a Risk-Based Performance Assessment Method for Long-Term Cover Systems--Application to the Monticello Mill Tailings Repository

Ho, Clifford K.; Arnold, Bill W.; Cochran, John R.; Webb, Stephen W.

A probabilistic, risk-based performance-assessment methodology is being developed to assist designers, regulators, and involved stakeholders in the selection, design, and monitoring of long-term covers for contaminated subsurface sites. This report presents an example of the risk-based performance-assessment method using a repository site in Monticello, Utah. At the Monticello site, a long-term cover system is being used to isolate long-lived uranium mill tailings from the biosphere. Computer models were developed to simulate relevant features, events, and processes that include water flux through the cover, source-term release, vadose-zone transport, saturated-zone transport, gas transport, and exposure pathways. The component models were then integrated into a total-system performance-assessment model, and uncertainty distributions of important input parameters were constructed and sampled in a stochastic Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple realizations were simulated using the integrated model to produce cumulative distribution functions of the performance metrics, which were used to assess cover performance for both present- and long-term future conditions. Performance metrics for this study included the water percolation reaching the uranium mill tailings, radon flux at the surface, groundwater concentrations, and dose. Results of this study can be used to identify engineering and environmental parameters (e.g., liner properties, long-term precipitation, distribution coefficients) that require additional data to reduce uncertainty in the calculations and improve confidence in the model predictions. These results can also be used to evaluate alternative engineering designs and to identify parameters most important to long-term performance.

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Regulatory Closure Options for the Residue in the Hanford Site Single-Shell Tanks

Cochran, John R.

Liquid, mixed, high-level radioactive waste (HLW) has been stored in 149 single-shell tanks (SSTS) located in tank farms on the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Hanford Site. The DOE is developing technologies to retrieve as much remaining HLW as technically possible prior to physically closing the tank farms. In support of the Hanford Tanks Initiative, Sandia National Laboratories has addressed the requirements for the regulatory closure of the radioactive component of any SST residue that may remain after physical closure. There is significant uncertainty about the end state of each of the 149 SSTS; that is, the nature and amount of wastes remaining in the SSTS after retrieval is uncertain. As a means of proceeding in the face of these uncertainties, this report links possible end-states with associated closure options. Requirements for disposal of HLW and low-level radioactive waste (LLW) are reviewed in detail. Incidental waste, which is radioactive waste produced incidental to the further processing of HLW, is then discussed. If the low activity waste (LAW) fraction from the further processing of HLW is determined to be incidental waste, then DOE can dispose of that incidental waste onsite without a license from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commissions (NRC). The NRC has proposed three Incidental Waste Criteria for determining if a LAW fraction is incidental waste. One of the three Criteria is that the LAW fraction should not exceed the NRC's Class C limits.

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Preliminary evaluation of the use of the greater confinement disposal concept for the disposal of Fernald 11e(2) byproduct material at the Nevada Test Site

Cochran, John R.

This report documents a preliminary evaluation of the ability of the greater confinement disposal boreholes at the Nevada Test Site to provide long-term isolation of radionuclides from the disposal of vitrified byproduct material. The byproduct material is essentially concentrated residue from processing uranium ore that contains a complex mixture of radionuclides, many of which are long-lived and present in concentrations greater than 100,000 picoCuries per gram. This material has been stored in three silos at the fernald Environmental Management Project since the early 1950s and will be vitrified into 6,000 yd{sup 3} (4,580 m{sup 3}) of glass gems prior to disposal. This report documents Sandia National Laboratories` preliminary evaluation for disposal of the byproduct material and includes: the selection of quantitative performance objectives; a conceptual model of the disposal system and the waste; results of the modeling; identified issues, and activities necessary to complete a full performance assessment.

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Using high-density magnetic and electromagnetic data for waste site characterization: A case study

Cochran, John R.

Magnetometers are frequently used to characterize hazardous waste sites. Due to cost and time considerations, data are typically collected on a coarse grid with nodes on 3 to 6 meter (m) centers. Hardware and software are now available which allow the rapid and cost effective collection of information on a much finer sampling grid. In this paper we present and compare total field magnetometery data collected on 3 m centers to total field magnetometery data collected on a grid with centers of 0.5 m or less. We also compare the magnetometery data to time-domain electromagnetic (EM) data collected on a 1 m by 0.2 m grid using the recently introduced Geonics Ltd. EM61 metal detector. All three data sets were collected at an abandoned landfill radioactive Burial Site No. 11 (RB-11) is located on Kirtland Air Force Base near Albuquerque, New Mexico.

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Results 126–134 of 134
Results 126–134 of 134