Publications

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The solution of the Optimal Power Flow (OPF) and Unit Commitment (UC) problems (i.e., determining generator schedules and set points that satisfy demands) is critical for efficient and reliable operation of the electricity grid. For computational efficiency, the alternating current OPF (ACOPF) problem is usually formulated with a linearized transmission model, often referred to as the DCOPF problem. However, these linear approximations do not guarantee global optimality or even feasibility for the true nonlinear alternating current (AC) system. Nonlinear AC power flow models can and should be used to improve model fidelity, but successful global solution of problems with these models requires the availability of strong relaxations of the AC optimal power flow constraints. In this paper, we use McCormick envelopes to strengthen the well-known second-order cone (SOC) relaxation of the ACOPF problem. With this improved relaxation, we can further include tight bounds on the voltages at the reference bus, and this paper demonstrates the effectiveness of this for improved bounds tightening. We present results on the optimality gap of both the base SOC relaxation and our Strengthened SOC (SSOC) relaxation for the National Information and Communications Technology Australia (NICTA) Energy System Test Case Archive (NESTA). For the cases where the SOC relaxation yields an optimality gap more than 0.1 %, the SSOC relaxation with bounds tightening further reduces the optimality gap by an average of 67 % and ultimately reduces the optimality gap to less than 0.1 % for 58 % of all the NESTA cases considered. Stronger relaxations enable more efficient global solution of the ACOPF problem and can improve computational efficiency of MINLP problems with AC power flow constraints, e.g., unit commitment.

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Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions. Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.

We describe pyomo.dae, an open source Python-based modeling framework that enables high-level abstract specification of optimization problems with differential and algebraic equations. The pyomo.dae framework is integrated with the Pyomo open source algebraic modeling language, and is available at http://www.pyomo.org. One key feature of pyomo.dae is that it does not restrict users to standard, predefined forms of differential equations, providing a high degree of modeling flexibility and the ability to express constraints that cannot be easily specified in other modeling frameworks. Other key features of pyomo.dae are the ability to specify optimization problems with high-order differential equations and partial differential equations, defined on restricted domain types, and the ability to automatically transform high-level abstract models into finite-dimensional algebraic problems that can be solved with off-the-shelf solvers. Moreover, pyomo.dae users can leverage existing capabilities of Pyomo to embed differential equation models within stochastic and integer programming models and mathematical programs with equilibrium constraint formulations. Collectively, these features enable the exploration of new modeling concepts, discretization schemes, and the benchmarking of state-of-the-art optimization solvers.

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Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.

Stochastic economic dispatch models address uncertainties in forecasts of renewable generation output by considering a finite number of realizations drawn from a stochastic process model, typically via Monte Carlo sampling. Accurate evaluations of expectations or higher order moments for quantities of interest, e.g., generating cost, can require a prohibitively large number of samples. We propose an alternative to Monte Carlo sampling based on polynomial chaos expansions. These representations enable efficient and accurate propagation of uncertainties in model parameters, using sparse quadrature methods. We also use Karhunen-Loève expansions for efficient representation of uncertain renewable energy generation that follows geographical and temporal correlations derived from historical data at each wind farm. Considering expected production cost, we demonstrate that the proposed approach can yield several orders of magnitude reduction in computational cost for solving stochastic economic dispatch relative to Monte Carlo sampling, for a given target error threshold.

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We observe suitably located energy storage systems are able to collect significant revenue through spatiotemporal arbitrage in congested transmission networks. However, transmission capacity expansion can significantly reduce or eliminate this source of revenue. Investment decisions by merchant storage operators must, therefore, account for the consequences of potential investments in transmission capacity by central planners. This paper presents a tri-level model to co-optimize merchant electrochemical storage siting and sizing with centralized transmission expansion planning. The upper level takes the merchant storage owner's perspective and aims to maximize the lifetime profits of the storage, while ensuring a given rate of return on investments. The middle level optimizes centralized decisions about transmission expansion. The lower level simulates market clearing. The proposed model is recast as a bi-level equivalent, which is solved using the column-and-constraint generation technique. A case study based on a 240-bus, 448-line testbed of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council interconnection demonstrates the usefulness of the proposed tri-level model.

We investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. This model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, in which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.

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Energy storage (ES) is a pivotal technology for dealing with the challenges caused by the integration of renewable energy sources. It is expected that a decrease in the capital cost of storage will eventually spur the deployment of large amounts of ES. These devices will provide transmission services, such as spatiotemporal energy arbitrage, i.e., storing surplus energy from intermittent renewable sources for later use by loads while reducing the congestion in the transmission network. This paper proposes a bilevel program that determines the optimal location and size of storage devices to perform this spatiotemporal energy arbitrage. This method aims to simultaneously reduce the system-wide operating cost and the cost of investments in ES while ensuring that merchant storage devices collect sufficient profits to fully recover their investment cost. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated using a representative case study of the ISO New England system with a prospective wind generation portfolio.

Progressive hedging, though an effective heuristic for solving stochastic mixed integer programs (SMIPs), is not guaranteed to converge in this case. Here, we describe BBPH, a branch and bound algorithm that uses PH at each node in the search tree such that, given sufficient time, it will always converge to a globally optimal solution. In addition to providing a theoretically convergent “wrapper” for PH applied to SMIPs, computational results demonstrate that for some difficult problem instances branch and bound can find improved solutions after exploring only a few nodes.

The purpose of this report is to briefly survey the major contributions of the FY14- FY16 LDRD project titled “An Advanced Decision Framework for Power Grid Resiliency”. The primary contributions of the project are described in detailed technical reports and journal articles, references to which we provide in a bibliography.

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Remote sensing systems have firmly established a role in providing immense value to commercial industry, scientific exploration, and national security. Continued maturation of sensing technology has reduced the cost of deploying highly-capable sensors while at the same time increased reliance on the information these sensors can provide. The demand for time on these sensors is unlikely to diminish. Coordination of next-generation sensor systems, larger constellations of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles, ground telescopes, etc. is prohibitively complex for existing heuristics-based scheduling techniques. The project was a two-year collaboration spanning multiple Sandia centers and included a partnership with Texas A&M University. We have developed algorithms and software for collection scheduling, remote sensor field-of-view pointing models, and bandwidth-constrained prioritization of sensor data. Our approach followed best practices from the operations research and computational geometry communities. These models provide several advantages over state of the art techniques. In particular, our approach is more flexible compared to heuristics that tightly couple models and solution techniques. First, our mixed-integer linear models afford a rigorous analysis so that sensor planners can quantitatively describe a schedule relative to the best possible. Optimal or near-optimal schedules can be produced with commercial solvers in operational run-times. These models can be modified and extended to incorporate different scheduling and resource constraints and objective function definitions. Further, we have extended these models to proactively schedule sensors under weather and ad hoc collection uncertainty. This approach stands in contrast to existing deterministic schedulers which assume a single future weather or ad hoc collection scenario. The field-of-view pointing algorithm produces a mosaic with the fewest number of images required to fully cover a region of interest. The bandwidth-constrained algorithms find the highest priority information that can be transmitted. All of these are based on mixed-integer linear programs so that, in the future, collection scheduling, field-of-view, and bandwidth prioritization can be combined into a single problem. Experiments conducted using the developed models, commercial solvers, and benchmark datasets have demonstrated that proactively scheduling against uncertainty regularly and significantly outperforms deterministic schedulers.

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As renewable energy penetration rates continue to increase in power systems worldwide, new challenges arise for system operators in both regulated and deregulated electricity markets to solve the security-constrained coal-fired unit commitment problem with intermittent generation (due to renewables) and uncertain load, in order to ensure system reliability and maintain cost effectiveness. In this paper, we study a security-constrained coal-fired stochastic unit commitment model, which we use to enhance the reliability unit commitment process for day-ahead power system operations. In our approach, we first develop a deterministic equivalent formulation for the problem, which leads to a large-scale mixed-integer linear program. Then, we verify that the turn on/off inequalities provide a convex hull representation of the minimum-up/down time polytope under the stochastic setting. Next, we develop several families of strong valid inequalities mainly through lifting schemes. In particular, by exploring sequence independent lifting and subadditive approximation lifting properties for the lifting schemes, we obtain strong valid inequalities for the ramping and general load balance polytopes. Finally, branch-and-cut algorithms are developed to employ these valid inequalities as cutting planes to solve the problem. Our computational results verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

We present a method for computing lower bounds in the progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) for two-stage and multi-stage stochastic mixed-integer programs. Computing lower bounds in the PHA allows one to assess the quality of the solutions generated by the algorithm contemporaneously. The lower bounds can be computed in any iteration of the algorithm by using dual prices that are calculated during execution of the standard PHA. We report computational results on stochastic unit commitment and stochastic server location problem instances, and explore the relationship between key PHA parameters and the quality of the resulting lower bounds.

In this paper, we derive a strengthened MILP formulation for certain gas turbine unit commitment problems, in which the ramping rates are no smaller than the minimum generation amounts. This type of gas turbines can usually start-up faster and have a larger ramping rate, as compared to the traditional coal-fired power plants. Recently, the number of this type of gas turbines increases significantly due to affordable gas prices and their scheduling flexibilities to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation. In this study, several new families of strong valid inequalities are developed to help reduce the computational time to solve these types of problems. Meanwhile, the validity and facet-defining proofs are provided for certain inequalities. Finally, numerical experiments on a modified IEEE 118-bus system and the power system data based on recent studies verify the effectiveness of applying our formulation to model and solve this type of gas turbine unit commitment problems, including reducing the computational time to obtain an optimal solution or obtaining a much smaller optimality gap, as compared to the default CPLEX, when the time limit is reached with no optimal solutions obtained.

We describe new capabilities for modeling bilevel programs within the Pyomo modeling software. These capabilities include new modeling components that represent subproblems, modeling transformations for re-expressing models with bilevel structure in other forms, and optimize bilevel programs with meta-solvers that apply transformations and then perform op- timization on the resulting model. We illustrate the breadth of Pyomo's modeling capabilities for bilevel programs, and we describe how Pyomo's meta-solvers can perform local and global optimization of bilevel programs.

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