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Uncertainty quantification for cooperative target tracking

Valley, Michael T.

Historically tracking systems have provided limited quantitative data such as approximate range, speed, and trajectory. Today's tracking systems are now being tasked with accurately quantifying a broader range of dynamic state variables (e.g., absolute and relative position, orientation, linear and angular velocity/acceleration, spin rate, trajectory, angle of attack, angle of impact) for high-speed test articles. This information is needed to demonstrate that the required test conditions are achieved, to develop, validate, and apply predictive models, and to document a system's response to a test environment. Few existing and emerging optical tracking methods accurately provide the dynamic state variables. Even fewer quantify the measurement uncertainty. Past measurement error estimates have been either qualitative or lacked the rigor needed to accurately validate and apply predictive models. This presentation will discuss tracking options and approaches for characterizing tracking measurement uncertainty.