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The START III bargaining space
The declining state of the Russian military and precarious Russian economic condition will give the US considerable advantages at the START III bargaining table. Taking the US-RF asymmetries into account, this paper discusses a menu of START III measures the US could ask for, and measures it could offer in return, in attempting to negotiate an equitable treaty. Measures the US might seek in a START III treaty include: further reductions in deployed strategic nuclear warheads, irreversibility of reductions through warhead dismantlement; beginning to bring theater nuclear weapons under mutual control, and increased transparency into the Russian nuclear weapons complex. The US may, however, wish to apply its bargaining advantages to attempting to achieve the first steps toward two long-range goals that would enhance US security: bringing theater nuclear weapons into the US-RF arms control arena, and increasing transparency into the Russian nuclear weapons complex. In exchange for measures relating to these objectives, the US might consider offering to Russia: Further strategic weapons reductions approaching levels at which the Russians believe they could maintain a degree of parity with the US; Measures to decrease the large disparities in potential deliver-system uploading capabilities that appear likely under current START II/START III scenarios; and Financial assistance in achieving START II/START III reductions as rapidly as is technically possible.