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Methodology to obtain expert information about the conceptual model development process used for performance assessment of waste management sites

Kerl, F.A.; Heger, A.S.; Gallegos, D.P.; Davis, P.A.

To provide a method for addressing the uncertainty associated with conceptual models developed for performance assessment of waste management sites, probabilistic networks have been applied to the conceptual model development process. The application of probabilistic networks provides a graphical representation of the reasoning process that goes into developing conceptual models. Probability tables associated with decision points in the process provide a quantification of the uncertainty that is associated with the resulting conceptual models. To support the development of this probabilistic network, a formal process is being designed and implemented to elicit expert information about the conceptual model development process. This paper discusses the approach to designing this expert judgment elicitation process. 10 refs.