We use Bayesian data analysis to predict dengue fever outbreaks and quantify the link between outbreaks and meteorological precursors tied to the breeding conditions of vector mosquitos. We use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to estimate a seasonal Gaussian process modeling infection rate, and aperiodic basis coefficients for the rate of an “outbreak level” of infection beyond seasonal trends across two separate regions. We use this outbreak level to estimate an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model from which we extrapolate a forecast. We show that the resulting model has useful forecasting power in the 6–8 week range. The forecasts are not significantly more accurate with the inclusion of meteorological covariates than with infection trends alone.
This work introduces a new method to efficiently solve optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs) with uncertain coefficients. The method leverages two sources of inexactness that trade accuracy for speed: (1) stochastic collocation based on dimension-Adaptive sparse grids (SGs), which approximates the stochastic objective function with a limited number of quadrature nodes, and (2) projection-based reduced-order models (ROMs), which generate efficient approximations to PDE solutions. These two sources of inexactness lead to inexact objective function and gradient evaluations, which are managed by a trust-region method that guarantees global convergence by adaptively refining the SG and ROM until a proposed error indicator drops below a tolerance specified by trust-region convergence theory. A key feature of the proposed method is that the error indicator|which accounts for errors incurred by both the SG and ROM|must be only an asymptotic error bound, i.e., a bound that holds up to an arbitrary constant that need not be computed. This enables the method to be applicable to a wide range of problems, including those where sharp, computable error bounds are not available; this distinguishes the proposed method from previous works. Numerical experiments performed on a model problem from optimal ow control under uncertainty verify global convergence of the method and demonstrate the method's ability to outperform previously proposed alternatives.
The Tularosa study was designed to understand how defensive deception-including both cyber and psychological-affects cyber attackers. Over 130 red teamers participated in a network penetration task over two days in which we controlled both the presence of and explicit mention of deceptive defensive techniques. To our knowledge, this represents the largest study of its kind ever conducted on a professional red team population. The design was conducted with a battery of questionnaires (e.g., experience, personality, etc.) and cognitive tasks (e.g., fluid intelligence, working memory, etc.), allowing for the characterization of a “typical” red teamer, as well as physiological measures (e.g., galvanic skin response, heart rate, etc.) to be correlated with the cyber events. This paper focuses on the design, implementation, data, population characteristics, and begins to examine preliminary results.
Krichmar, Jeffrey L.; Severa, William M.; Khan, Muhammad S.; Olds, James L.
The Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution foretold of during the 1960s is well underway in the second decade of the twenty first century. Its period of phenomenal growth likely lies ahead. AI-operated machines and technologies will extend the reach of Homo sapiens far beyond the biological constraints imposed by evolution: outwards further into deep space, as well as inwards into the nano-world of DNA sequences and relevant medical applications. And yet, we believe, there are crucial lessons that biology can offer that will enable a prosperous future for AI. For machines in general, and for AI's especially, operating over extended periods or in extreme environments will require energy usage orders of magnitudes more efficient than exists today. In many operational environments, energy sources will be constrained. The AI's design and function may be dependent upon the type of energy source, as well as its availability and accessibility. Any plans for AI devices operating in a challenging environment must begin with the question of how they are powered, where fuel is located, how energy is stored and made available to the machine, and how long the machine can operate on specific energy units. While one of the key advantages of AI use is to reduce the dimensionality of a complex problem, the fact remains that some energy is required for functionality. Hence, the materials and technologies that provide the needed energy represent a critical challenge toward future use scenarios of AI and should be integrated into their design. Here we look to the brain and other aspects of biology as inspiration for Biomimetic Research for Energy-efficient AI Designs (BREAD).
Sampling of drinking water distribution systems is performed to ensure good water quality and protect public health. Sampling also satisfies regulatory requirements and is done to respond to customer complaints or emergency situations. Water distribution system modeling techniques can be used to plan and inform sampling strategies. However, a high degree of accuracy and confidence in the hydraulic and water quality models is required to support real-time response. One source of error in these models is related to uncertainty in model input parameters. Effective characterization of these uncertainties and their effect on contaminant transport during a contamination incident is critical for providing confidence estimates in model-based design and evaluation of different sampling strategies. In this paper, the effects of uncertainty in customer demand, isolation valve status, bulk reaction rate coefficient, contaminant injection location, start time, duration, and rate on the size and location of the contaminant plume are quantified for two example water distribution systems. Results show that the most important parameter was the injection location. The size of the plume was also affected by the reaction rate coefficient, injection rate, and injection duration, whereas the exact location of the plume was additionally affected by the isolation valve status. Uncertainty quantification provides a more complete picture of how contaminants move within a water distribution system and more information when using modeling results to select sampling locations.
The design of satellites usually includes the objective of minimizing mass due to high launch costs, which is challenging due to the need to protect sensitive electronics from the space radiation environment by means of radiation shielding. This is further complicated by the need to account for uncertainties, e.g. in manufacturing. There is growing interest in automated design optimization and uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques to help achieve that objective. Traditional optimization and UQ approaches that rely exclusively on response functions (e.g. dose calculations) can be quite expensive when applied to transport problems. Previously we showed how adjoint-based transport sensitivities used in conjunction with gradient-based optimization algorithms can be quite effective in designing mass-efficient electron and/or proton shields in one- or two-dimensional Cartesian geometries. In this paper we extend that work to UQ and to robust design (i.e. optimization that considers uncertainties) in 2D. This consists primarily of using the sensitivities to geometric changes, originally derived for optimization, within relevant algorithms for UQ and robust design. We perform UQ analyses on previous optimized designs given some assumed manufacturing uncertainties. We also conduct a new optimization exercise that accounts for the same uncertainties. Our results show much improved computational efficiencies over previous approaches.
Near-wall turbulence models in Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) typically approximate near-wall behavior using a solution to the mean flow equations. This approach inevitably leads to errors when the modeled flow does not satisfy the assumptions surrounding the use of a mean flow approximation for an unsteady boundary condition. Herein, modern machine learning (ML) techniques are utilized to implement a coordinate frame invariant model of the wall shear stress that is derived specifically for complex flows for which mean near-wall models are known to fail. The model operates on a set of scalar and vector invariants based on data taken from the first LES grid point off the wall. Neural networks were trained and validated on spatially filtered direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The trained networks were then tested on data to which they were never previously exposed and comparisons of the accuracy of the networks’ predictions of wall-shear stress were made to both a standard mean wall model approach and to the true stress values taken from the DNS data. The ML approach showed considerable improvement in both the accuracy of individual shear stress predictions as well as produced a more accurate distribution of wall shear stress values than did the standard mean wall model. This result held both in regions where the standard mean approach typically performs satisfactorily as well as in regions where it is known to fail, and also in cases where the networks were trained and tested on data taken from the same flow type/region as well as when trained and tested on data from different respective flow topologies.
We describe new machine-learning-based methods to defeature CAD models for tetrahedral meshing. Using machine learning predictions of mesh quality for geometric features of a CAD model prior to meshing we can identify potential problem areas and improve meshing outcomes by presenting a prioritized list of suggested geometric operations to users. Our machine learning models are trained using a combination of geometric and topological features from the CAD model and local quality metrics for ground truth. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept implementation of the resulting work ow using Sandia's Cubit Geometry and Meshing Toolkit.