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Data & model conditioning for multivariate systematic uncertainty in model calibration, validation, and extrapolation

Romero, Vicente J.

This paper discusses implications and appropriate treatment of systematic uncertainty in experiments and modeling. Systematic uncertainty exists when experimental conditions, and/or measurement bias errors, and/or bias contributed by post-processing the data, are constant over the set of experiments but the particular values of the conditions and/or biases are unknown to within some specified uncertainty. Systematic uncertainties in experiments do not automatically show up in the output data, unlike random uncertainty which is revealed when multiple experiments are performed. Therefore, the output data must be properly 'conditioned' to reflect important sources of systematic uncertainty in the experiments. In industrial scale experiments the systematic uncertainty in experimental conditions (especially boundary conditions) is often large enough that the inference error on how the experimental system maps inputs to outputs is often quite substantial. Any such inference error and uncertainty thereof also has implications in model validation and calibration/conditioning; ignoring systematic uncertainty in experiments can lead to 'Type X' error in these procedures. Apart from any considerations of modeling and simulation, reporting of uncertainty associated with experimental results should include the effects of any significant systematic uncertainties in the experiments. This paper describes and illustrates the treatment of multivariate systematic uncertainties of interval and/or probabilistic natures, and combined cases. The paper also outlines a practical and versatile 'real-space' framework and methodology within which experimental and modeling uncertainties (correlated and uncorrelated, systematic and random, aleatory and epistemic) are treated to mitigate risk in model validation, calibration/conditioning, hierarchical modeling, and extrapolative prediction.

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TYPE Conference YEAR 2010
OSTI

Molecular nanocomposites

Voigt, James A.

The goals of this project are to understand the fundamental principles that govern the formation and function of novel nanoscale and nanocomposite materials. Specific scientific issues being addressed include: design and synthesis of complex molecular precursors with controlled architectures, controlled synthesis of nanoclusters and nanoparticles, development of robust two or three-dimensionally ordered nanocomposite materials with integrated functionalities that can respond to internal or external stimuli through specific molecular interactions or phase transitions, fundamental understanding of molecular self-assembly mechanisms on multiple length scales, and fundamental understanding of transport, electronic, optical, magnetic, catalytic and photocatalytic properties derived from the nanoscale phenomena and unique surface and interfacial chemistry for DOE's energy mission.

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TYPE Conference YEAR 2010
OSTI

Lemnos interoperable security project

Halbgewachs, Ronald D.

With the Lemnos framework, interoperability of control security equipment is straightforward. To obtain interoperability between proprietary security appliance units, one or both vendors must now write cumbersome 'translation code.' If one party changes something, the translation code 'breaks.' The Lemnos project is developing and testing a framework that uses widely available security functions and protocols like IPsec - to form a secure communications channel - and Syslog, to exchange security log messages. Using this model, security appliances from two or more different vendors can clearly and securely exchange information, helping to better protect the total system. Simplify regulatory compliance in a complicated security environment by leveraging the Lemnos framework. As an electric utility, are you struggling to implement the NERC CIP standards and other regulations? Are you weighing the misery of multiple management interfaces against committing to a ubiquitous single-vendor solution? When vendors build their security appliances to interoperate using the Lemnos framework, it becomes practical to match best-of-breed offerings from an assortment of vendors to your specific control systems needs. The Lemnos project is developing and testing a framework that uses widely available open-source security functions and protocols like IPsec and Syslog to create a secure communications channel between appliances in order to exchange security data.

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TYPE Conference YEAR 2010
OSTI
Results 74151–74175 of 99,299
Results 74151–74175 of 99,299