Publications

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We use Bayesian data analysis to predict dengue fever outbreaks and quantify the link between outbreaks and meteorological precursors tied to the breeding conditions of vector mosquitos. We use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to estimate a seasonal Gaussian process modeling infection rate, and aperiodic basis coefficients for the rate of an “outbreak level” of infection beyond seasonal trends across two separate regions. We use this outbreak level to estimate an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model from which we extrapolate a forecast. We show that the resulting model has useful forecasting power in the 6–8 week range. The forecasts are not significantly more accurate with the inclusion of meteorological covariates than with infection trends alone.

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We seek scalable benchmarks for entity resolution problems. Solutions to these problems range from trivial approaches such as string sorting to sophisticated methods such as statistical relational learning. The theoretical and practical complexity of these approaches varies widely, so one of the primary purposes of a benchmark will be to quantify the trade-off between solution quality and runtime. We are motivated by the ubiquitous nature of entity resolution as a fundamental problem faced by any organization that ingests large amounts of noisy text data. A benchmark is typically a rigid specification that provides an objective measure usable for ranking implementations of an algorithm. For example the Top500 and HPCG500 bench- marks rank supercomputers based on their performance of dense and sparse linear algebra problems (respectively). These two benchmarks require participants to report FLOPS counts attainable on various machines. Our purpose is slightly different. Whereas the supercomputing benchmarks mentioned above hold algorithms constant and aim to rank machines, we are primarily interested in ranking algorithms. As mentioned above, entity resolution problems can be approached in completely different ways. We believe that users of our benchmarks must decide what sort of procedure to run before comparing implementations and architectures. Eventually, we also wish to provide a mechanism for ranking machines while holding algorithmic approach constant . Our primary contributions are parallel algorithms for computing solution quality mea- sures per entity. We find in some real datasets that many entities are quite easy to resolve while others are difficult, with a heavy skew toward the former case. Therefore, measures such as global confusion matrices, F measures, etc. do not meet our benchmarking needs. We design methods for computing solution quality at the granularity of a single entity in order to know when proposed solutions do well in difficult situations (perhaps justifying extra computational), or struggling in easy situations. We report on progress toward a viable benchmark for comparing entity resolution algo- rithms. Our work is incomplete, but we have designed and prototyped several algorithms to help evalute the solution quality of competing approaches to these problems. We envision a benchmark in which the objective measure is a ratio of solution quality to runtime.

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to develop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors providing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication sub-missions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

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This report summarizes the work performed under the project "Advanced Data Structures for Improved Cyber Resilience and Awareness in Untrusted Environments." The goal of the project was to design, analyze, and test new data structures for cybersecurity applications. We had two major thrusts: 1) using new/improved write-optimized data structures and/or algorithms to better man- age and analyze high-speed massive-volume cyberstreams, and 2) adding security features to data structures at minimum cost. Write optimization allows data structures to better use secondary memory to store and search a larger amount of useful information. Secondary memory is large compared to main memory, but data movement to and from secondary memory must be carefully managed to run quickly enough to keep up with fast streams. The first thrust included managing cyberstreams in parallel, both multi-threaded and distributed, and improving the benchmarking infrastructure for testing new streaming data structures. We considered both (near) real-time discovery of particular patterns, and improved logging for improved forensics. We considered two kinds of security-feature problem. The first was high-performance history- independent external-memory data structures. These provide certain protections to data if a disk is stolen. We also prove some trade-offs between speed and security in this setting. The second data-security problem is more secure data look-up in secret-shared data bases. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, with the background to under- stand these accomplishments. It gathers the abstracts and references for the six refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We summarize several accomplishments that will be submitted for publication. We then archive one piece of partial work that is not likely to be published in the near future: validation of history-independent data structure implementations.

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We study several natural instances of the geometric hitting set problem for input consisting of sets of line segments (and rays, lines) having a small number of distinct slopes. These problems model path monitoring (e.g., on road networks) using the fewest sensors (the “hitting points”). We give approximation algorithms for cases including (i) lines of 3 slopes in the plane, (ii) vertical lines and horizontal segments, (iii) pairs of horizontal/vertical segments. We give hardness and hardness of approximation results for these problems. We prove that the hitting set problem for vertical lines and horizontal rays is polynomially solvable.

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A challenge in computer architecture is that processors often cannot be fed data from DRAM as fast as CPUs can consume it. Therefore, many applications are memory-bandwidth bound. With this motivation and the realization that traditional architectures (with all DRAM reachable only via bus) are insufficient to feed groups of modern processing units, vendors have introduced a variety of non-DDR 3D memory technologies (Hybrid Memory Cube (HMC),Wide I/O 2, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)). These offer higher bandwidth and lower power by stacking DRAM chips on the processor or nearby on a silicon interposer. We will call these solutions “near-memory,” and if user-addressable, “scratchpad.” High-performance systems on the market now offer two levels of main memory: near-memory on package and traditional DRAM further away. In the near term we expect the latencies near-memory and DRAM to be similar. Thus, it is natural to think of near-memory as another module on the DRAM level of the memory hierarchy. Vendors are expected to offer modes in which the near memory is used as cache, but we believe that this will be inefficient. In this paper, we explore the design space for a user-controlled multi-level main memory. Our work identifies situations in which rewriting application kernels can provide significant performance gains when using near-memory. We present algorithms designed for two-level main memory, using divide-and-conquer to partition computations and streaming to exploit data locality. We consider algorithms for the fundamental application of sorting and for the data analysis kernel k-means. Our algorithms asymptotically reduce memory-block transfers under certain architectural parameter settings. We use and extend Sandia National Laboratories’ SST simulation capability to demonstrate the relationship between increased bandwidth and improved algorithmic performance. Memory access counts from simulations corroborate predicted performance improvements for our sorting algorithm. In contrast, the k-means algorithm is generally CPU bound and does not improve when using near-memory except under extreme conditions. These conditions require large instances that rule out SST simulation, but we demonstrate improvements by running on a customized machine with high and low bandwidth memory. These case studies in co-design serve as positive and cautionary templates, respectively, for the major task of optimizing the computational kernels of many fundamental applications for two-level main memory systems.