We present a method of control variates for calculating improved estimates for mean performance quantities of interest, E(PQI) , computed from Monte Carlo probabilistic simulations. An example of a PQI is the concentration of a contaminant at a particular location in a problem domain computed from simulations of transport in porous media. To simplify the presentation, the method is described in the setting of a one- dimensional elliptical model problem involving a single uncertain parameter represented by a probability distribution. The approach can be easily implemented for more complex problems involving multiple uncertain parameters and in particular for application to probabilistic performance assessment of deep geologic nuclear waste repository systems. Numerical results indicate the method can produce estimates of E(PQI)having superior accuracy on coarser meshes and reduce the required number of simulations needed to achieve an acceptable estimate.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has embarked on the Deep Borehole Field Test (DBFT), which will investigate whether conditions suitable for disposal of radioactive waste can be found at a depth of up to 5 km in the earth’s crust. As planned, the DBFT will demonstrate drilling and construction of two boreholes, one for initial scientific characterization, and the other at a larger diameter such as could be appropriate for waste disposal (the DBFT will not involve radioactive waste). A wide range of geoscience activities is planned for the Characterization Borehole, and an engineering demonstration of test package emplacement and retrieval is planned for the larger Field Test Borehole. Characterization activities will focus on measurements and samples that are important for evaluating the long-term isolation capability of the Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) concept. Engineering demonstration activities will focus on providing data to evaluate the concept’s operational safety and practicality. Procurement of a scientifically acceptable DBFT site and a site management contractor is now underway. The concept of deep borehole disposal (DBD) for radioactive wastes is not new. It was considered by the National Academy of Science (NAS 1957) for liquid waste, studied in the 1980’s in the U.S. (Woodward–Clyde 1983), and has been evaluated by European waste disposal R&D programs in the past few decades (for example, Grundfelt and Crawford 2014; Grundfelt 2010). Deep injection of wastewater including hazardous wastes is ongoing in the U.S. and regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA 2001). The DBFT is being conducted with a view to use the DBD concept for future disposal of smaller-quantity, DOE-managed wastes from nuclear weapons production (i.e., Cs/Sr capsules and granular solid wastes). However, the concept may also have broader applicability for nations that have a need to dispose of limited amounts of spent fuel from nuclear power reactors. For such nations the cost for disposing of volumetrically limited waste streams could be lower than mined geologic repositories.
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of high-level radioactive wastes has been considered an option for geological isolation for many years (Hess et al. 1957). Recent advances in drilling technology have decreased costs and increased reliability for large-diameter (i.e., ≥50 cm [19.7”]) boreholes to depths of several kilometers (Beswick 2008; Beswick et al. 2014). These advances have therefore also increased the feasibility of the DBD concept (Brady et al. 2009; Cornwall 2015), and the current field test, introduced herein, is a demonstration of the DBD concept and these advances.
Jove-Colon, Carlos F.; Weck, Philippe F.; Hammond, Glenn E.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L.; Zheng, Liange; Rutqvist, Jonny; Kim, Kunhwi; Houseworth, James; Caporuscio, Florie A.; Cheshire, Michael; Palaich, Sarah; Norskog, Katherine E.; Zavarin, Mavrik; Wolery, Thomas J.; Jerden, James L.; Copple, Jacqueline M.; Cruse, Terry; Ebert, William L.
Deep geological disposal of nuclear waste in clay/shale/argillaceous rock formations has received much consideration given its desirable attributes such as isolation properties (low permeability), geochemically reduced conditions, slow diffusion, sorbtive mineralogy, and geologically widespread (Jové Colón et al., 2014). There is a wealth of gained scientific expertise on the behavior of clay/shale/ argillaceous rock given its focus in international nuclear waste repository programs that includes underground research laboratories (URLs) in Switzerland, France, Belgium, and Japan. Jové Colón et al. (2014) have described some of these investigative efforts in clay rock ranging from site characterization to research on the engineered barrier system (EBS). Evaluations of disposal options that include nuclear waste disposition in clay/shale/argillaceous rock have determined that this host media can accommodate a wide range of waste types. R&D work within the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) assessing thermal effects and fluid-mineral interactions for the disposition of heat-generating waste have so far demonstrated the feasibility for the EBS and clay host rock to withstand high thermal loads. This report represents the continuation of disposal R&D efforts on the advancement and refinement of coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC), hydrothermal experiments on clay interactions, used fuel degradation (source term), and thermodynamic modeling and database development. The development and implementation of a clay/shale/argillite reference case described in Jové Colón et al. (2014) for FY15 will be documented in another report (Mariner et al. 2015) – only a brief description will be given here. This clay reference case implementation is the result of integration efforts between the GDSA PA and disposal in argillite work packages. The assessment of sacrificial zones in the EBS is being addressed through experimental work along with 1D reactive-transport and reaction path modeling. The focus of these investigations into the nature of sacrificial zones is to evaluate the chemical effects of heterogeneous chemical reactions at EBS interfaces. The difference in barrier material types and the extent of chemical reactions within these interfacial domains generates changes in mineral abundances. These mineralogical alterations also result in volume changes that, although small, could affect the interface bulk porosity. As in previous deliverables, this report is structured according to various national laboratory contributions describing R&D activities applicable to clay/shale/argillite media.
This report presents efforts to develop the use of in situ naturally-occurring noble gas tracers to evaluate transport mechanisms and deformation in shale hydrocarbon reservoirs. Noble gases are promising as shale reservoir diagnostic tools due to their sensitivity of transport to: shale pore structure; phase partitioning between groundwater, liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons; and deformation from hydraulic fracturing. Approximately 1.5-year time-series of wellhead fluid samples were collected from two hydraulically-fractured wells. The noble gas compositions and isotopes suggest a strong signature of atmospheric contribution to the noble gases that mix with deep, old reservoir fluids. Complex mixing and transport of fracturing fluid and reservoir fluids occurs during production. Real-time laboratory measurements were performed on triaxially-deforming shale samples to link deformation behavior, transport, and gas tracer signatures. Finally, we present improved methods for production forecasts that borrow statistical strength from production data of nearby wells to reduce uncertainty in the forecasts.
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of high-level radioactive wastes has been considered an option for geological isolation for many years (Hess et al. 1957). Recent advances in drilling technology have decreased costs and increased reliability for large-diameter (i.e., ≥50 cm [19.7”]) boreholes to depths of several kilometers (Beswick 2008). These advances have therefore also increased the feasibility of the DBD concept (Brady et al. 2009), and the current field test, introduced herein, is a demonstration of the DBD concept and these advances. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste (DOE 2013) specifically recommended developing a research and development plan for DBD as a key strategy objective. DOE’s Assessment of Disposal Options for DOE-Managed High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel (DOE 2014a) concludes “effective implementation of a strategy for management and disposal of all High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel” would include focused research on deep boreholes, especially to retain flexible options for disposal of physically smaller DOEmanaged solid radioactive waste forms. More information regarding the characteristics, quantities, and sizes of these physically smaller waste forms is in the Evaluation of Options for Permanent Geologic Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste (SNL 2014).
We presented a multiporosity extension of classical double and triple-porosity fractured rock flow models for slightly compressible fluids. The multiporosity model is an adaptation of the multirate solute transport model of Haggerty and Gorelick (1995) to viscous flow in fractured rock reservoirs. It is a generalization of both pseudo steady state and transient interporosity flow double-porosity models. The model includes a fracture continuum and an overlapping distribution of multiple rock matrix continua, whose fracture-matrix exchange coefficients are specified through a discrete probability mass function. Semianalytical cylindrically symmetric solutions to the multiporosity mathematical model are developed using the Laplace transform to illustrate its behavior. Furthermore, the multiporosity model presented here is conceptually simple, yet flexible enough to simulate common conceptualizations of double and triple-porosity flow. This combination of generality and simplicity makes the multiporosity model a good choice for flow modelling in low-permeability fractured rocks.
The amount of brine present in domal salt formation is far less than in bedded salts (e.g., 0.01 to 0.1% compared with 1 to 3%). In salt domes, shear deformation associated with diapirism has caused existing brine to coalesce, leading to flow and expulsion. Brine migration behavior was investigated in bedded salt at WIPP (Nowak and McTigue 1987, SAND87-0880), and in domal salt at Asse (Coyle et al. 1987, BMI/ONWI-624). Test methods were not standardized, and the tests involved large diameter boreholes (17 to 36 in. diameter) and large apparatus. The tested intervals were proximal to mined openings (within approximately 1 diameter) where in situ stresses are redistributed due to excavation. The tests showed that (1) brine inflow rates can range over at least 2 orders of magnitude for domal vs. bedded salt, (2) that brine inflow is strongly associated with clay and interbedded permeable layers in bedded salt, and (3) that measurement systems can readily collect very small quantities of moisture over time frames of 2 years or longer. Brine inflow rates declined slightly with time in both test series, but neither series approached a state of apparent depletion. This range of flow magnitude could be significant to repository design and performance assessment, especially if inflow rates can be predicted using stratigraphic and geomechanical inputs, and can be shown to approach zero in a predictable manner.
Deep Borehole Disposal (DBD) of radioactive waste has some clear advantages over mined repositories, including incremental construction and loading, enhanced natural barriers provided by deep continental crystalline basement, and reduced site characterization. Unfavorable features for a DBD site include upward vertical fluid potential gradients, presence of economically exploitable natural resources, presence of high permeability connection from the waste disposal zone to the shallow subsurface, and significant probability of future volcanic activity. Site characterization activities would encompass geomechanical (i.e., rock stress state, fluid pressure, and faulting), geological (i.e., both overburden and bedrock lithology), hydrological (i.e., quantity of fluid, fluid convection properties, and solute transport mechanisms), chemical (i.e., rock and fluid interaction), and socioeconomic (i.e., likelihood for human intrusion) aspects. For a planned Deep Borehole Field Test (DBFT), site features and/or physical processes would be evaluated using both direct (i.e., sampling and in-hole testing) and indirect (i.e., surface and borehole geophysical) methods for efficient and effective characterization. Surface-based characterization would be used to guide the exploratory drilling program, once a candidate DBFT site has been selected. Borehole based characterization will be used to determine the variability of system state (i.e., stress, pressure, temperature, petrology, and water chemistry) with depth, and to develop material and system parameters relevant for numerical simulation. While the site design of DBD could involve an array of disposal boreholes, it may not be necessary to characterize each borehole in detail. Characterization strategies will be developed in the DBFT that establish disposal system safety sufficient for licensing a disposal array.
This paper describes technical, logistical, and sociopolitical factors to be considered in the development of guidelines for siting a facility for deep borehole disposal of radioactive waste. Technical factors include geological, hydro-geochemical, and geophysical characteristics that are related to the suitability of the site for drilling and borehole construction, waste emplacement activities, waste isolation, and long-term safety of the deep borehole disposal system. Logistical factors to be considered during site selection include: The local or regional availability of drilling contractors (equipment, services, and materials) capable of drilling a large-diameter borehole to approximately 5 km depth; the legal and regulatory requirements associated with drilling, construction of surface facilities, waste handling and emplacement, and postclosure safety; and access to transportation systems. Social and political factors related to site selection include the distance from population centers and the support or opposition of local and state entities and other stakeholders to the facility and its operations. These considerations are examined in the context of the siting process and guidelines for a deep borehole field test, designed to evaluate the feasibility of siting and operating a deep borehole disposal facility.
While deep borehole disposal of nuclear waste should rely primarily on off-the-shelf technologies pioneered by the oil and gas and geothermal industries, the development of new science and technology will remain important. Key knowledge gaps have been outlined in the research roadmap for deep boreholes (B. Arnold et al, 2012, Research, Development, and Demonstration Roadmap for Deep Borehole Disposal, Sandia National Laboratories, SAND2012-8527P) and in a recent Deep Borehole Science Needs Workshop. Characterizing deep crystalline basement, understanding the nature and role of deep fractures, more precisely age-dating deep groundwaters, and demonstrating long-term performance of seals are all important topics of interest. Overlapping deep borehole and enhanced geothermal technology needs include: quantification of seal material performance/failure, stress measurement beyond the borehole, advanced drilling and completion tools, and better subsurface sensors. A deep borehole demonstration has the potential to trigger more focused study of deep hydrology, high temperature brine-rock interaction, and thermomechanical behavior.
Following the radionuclide release event of February 14, 2014 at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), actinide contamination has been found on the walls and floor in Panel 7 as a result of a release in Room 7 of Panel 7. It has been proposed to decontaminate Panel 7 at the WIPP by washing contaminated surfaces in the underground with fresh water. A cost-effective cleanup of this contamination would allow for a timely return to waste disposal operations at WIPP. It is expected that the fresh water used to decontaminate Panel 7 will flow as contaminated brine down into the porosity of the materials under the floor – the run-of-mine (ROM) salt above Marker Bed 139 (MB139) and MB139 itself – where its fate will be controlled by the hydraulic and transport properties of MB139. Due to the structural dip of MB139, it is unlikely that this brine would migrate northward towards the Waste-Handling Shaft sump. A few strategically placed shallow small-diameter observation boreholes straddling MB139 would allow for monitoring the flow and fate of this brine after decontamination. Additionally, given that flow through the compacted ROM salt floor and in MB139 would occur under unsaturated (or two-phase) conditions, there is a need to measure the unsaturated flow properties of crushed WIPP salt and salt from the disturbed rock zone (DRZ).
Significant laboratory and in situ testing has been conducted by both the United States and Germany on salt disposal of heat-generating radioactive waste. Coupled simulation capabilities recently developed in other fields are now being applied to repository design and performance confirmation. New efforts are underway to benchmark this latest generation of numerical models, requiring quality validation datasets. Datasets associated with historic high-level waste (HL W) field experiments at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico, Avery Island in Louisiana, Asse II in Germany, and Project Salt Vault in Kansas should be considered before constructing new experiments. We constructed an online bibliographic database using the web reference database (Refbase) distribution to contain references to reports, and conference papers, along with associated electronic copies of reports and associated data. The database was populated using publically available Department of Energy sources and project-specific archives scanned for this project. The browser-based database facilitated an extensive collaborative review of experiments in geologic salt-primarily concerning heated salt that may be applicable to modern code validation efforts. We summarize historic in situ tests conducted in geologic salt, focusing on heated salt creep, heated brine migration, and crushed salt reconsolidation. We propose several candidate thermal, mechanical, and hydrological validation datasets for salt behavior under repository conditions.
The article briefly summarizes the siting history of salt nuclear waste repositories as it relates to the research that has been conducted in support of this overall mission. Project Salt Vault was a solid-waste disposal demonstration in bedded salt performed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in Lyons, Kan. The US Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) intended to convert the project into a pilot plant for the storage of high-level waste. Despite these intentions, nearby solution mining and questionably plugged oil and gas boreholes resulted in the abandonment of the Lyons site. With help from the USGS, in 1972 ORNL began looking in the Permian Basin for a different disposal site in Texas or New Mexico. The WIPP project was discontinued in 1974 in favor of concentrating efforts on a Retrievable Surface Storage Facility. After the demise of that project in 1975, work resumed on WIPP and its scope was temporarily expanded to include defense HLW. A location a few miles northeast of the current WIPP site was chosen for further study.