Optimizing Machine Learning Predictions with Prediction Uncertainty
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Proceedings - 2017 International Conference on Computational Science and Computational Intelligence, CSCI 2017
A forensics investigation after a breach often uncovers network and host indicators of compromise (IOCs) that can be deployed to sensors to allow early detection of the adversary in the future. Over time, the adversary will change tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), which will also change the data generated. If the IOCs are not kept up-to-date with the adversary's new TTPs, the adversary will no longer be detected once all of the IOCs become invalid. Tracking the Known (TTK) is the problem of keeping IOCs, in this case regular expression (regexes), up-to-date with a dynamic adversary. Our framework solves the TTK problem in an automated, cyclic fashion to bracket a previously discovered adversary. This tracking is accomplished through a data-driven approach of self-adapting a given model based on its own detection capabilities.In our initial experiments, we found that the true positive rate (TPR) of the adaptive solution degrades much less significantly over time than the naïve solution, suggesting that self-updating the model allows the continued detection of positives (i.e., adversaries). The cost for this performance is in the false positive rate (FPR), which increases over time for the adaptive solution, but remains constant for the naïve solution. However, the difference in overall detection performance, as measured by the area under the curve (AUC), between the two methods is negligible. This result suggests that self-updating the model over time should be done in practice to continue to detect known, evolving adversaries.
Proceedings - 17th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications, ICMLA 2018
Malware detection and remediation is an on-going task for computer security and IT professionals. Here, we examine the use of neural algorithms to detect malware using the system calls generated by executables-alleviating attempts at obfuscation as the behavior is monitored. We examine several deep learning techniques, and liquid state machines baselined against a random forest. The experiments examine the effects of concept drift to understand how well the algorithms generalize to novel malware samples by testing them on data that was collected after the training data. The results suggest that each of the examined machine learning algorithms is a viable solution to detect malware-achieving between 90% and 95% class-averaged accuracy (CAA). In real-world scenarios, the performance evaluation on an operational network may not match the performance achieved in training. Namely, the CAA may be about the same, but the values for precision and recall over the malware can change significantly. We structure experiments to highlight these caveats and offer insights into expected performance in operational environments. In addition, we use the induced models to better understand what differentiates malware samples from goodware, which can further be used as a forensics tool to provide directions for investigation and remediation.
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