Publications

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An existing shared risk framework designed for assessing and comparing threat-based risks to water utilities is being extended to incorporate electric power. An important differentiating characteristic of this framework is the use of a system-centric rather than an asset-centric approach. This approach allows anonymous sharing of results and enables comparison of assessments across different utilities within an infrastructure sector. By allowing utility owners to compare their assessments with others, they can improve their self-assessments and identification of "unknown unknowns". This document provides an approach for extension of the framework to electric power, including treatment of dependencies and interdependencies. The systems, threats, and mathematical description of associated risks used in a prototype framework are provided. The method is extensible so that additional infrastructure sectors can be incorporated. Preliminary results for a proof of concept calculation are provided.

Costs to permit Marine Energy projects are poorly understood. In this paper we examine environmental compliance and permitting costs for 19 projects in the U.S., covering the last 2 decades. Guided discussions were conducted with developers over a 3-year period to obtain historical and ongoing project cost data relative to environmental studies (e.g., baseline or pre-project site characterization as well as post-installation effects monitoring), stakeholder outreach, and mitigation, as well as qualitative experience of the permitting process. Data are organized in categories of technology type, permitted capacity, pre-and post-installation, geographic location, and funding types. We also compare our findings with earlier logic models created for the Department of Energy (i.e., Reference Models). Environmental studies most commonly performed were for Fish and Fisheries, Noise, Marine Habitat/Benthic Studies and Marine Mammals. Studies for tidal projects were more expensive than those performed for wave projects and the range of reported project costs tended to be wider than ranges predicted by logic models. For eight projects reporting full project costs, from project start to FERC or USACE permit, the average amount for environmental permitting compliance was 14.6%.

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Risk assessment plays a vital role in protecting our nation's critical infrastructure. Traditionally, such assessments have been conducted as a singular activity confined to the boarders of a particular asset or utility with little external sharing of information. In contrast other domains, e.g., disaster preparedness, cyber security, food-borne hazards, have demonstrated the benefits of sharing data, experiences and lessons learned in assessing and managing risk. Here we explore the concept of a Shared Risk Framework (SRF) in the context of critical infrastructure assessments. In this exploration, key elements of an SRF are introduced and initial instantiations demonstrated by way of three water utility assessments. Results from these three demonstrations were then combined with results from four other risk assessments developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts. Through this comparison we were able to explore potential challenges and benefits from implementation of a SRF. Challenges included both the capacity and interest of local utilities to conduct a shared risk assessment; particularly, wide scale adoption of any SRF will require a clear demonstration that such an effort supports the basic mission of the utility, adds benefit to the utility, and protects utility data from unintended access or misuse. In terms of benefits, anonymous sharing of results among utilities could provide the added benefits of recognizing and correcting bias; identifying ‘unknown, unknowns’; assisting self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility; and providing a basis for treating shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities.

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This report describes the application of an approach for determining grid modernization investments that can best improve the resilience of communities. Under the direction of the US Department of Energy's Grid Modernization Laboratory Consortium, Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) and Los Alamos National Laboratory (Los Alamos) collaborated with community stakeholders in New Orleans, Louisiana on grid modernization strategies for resilience. Past disruptions to the electric grid in New Orleans have contributed to an inability to provide citizens with adequate access to a wide range of infrastructure services. Using a performance-based resilience metric, Sandia and Los Alamos performed analysis on how to improve access to infrastructure services across New Orleans after a major disruption using a system of resilience nodes. Resilience nodes rely on a combination of urban planning with grid investment planning for resilience in order to design clustered infrastructure assets with highly resilient electrical supply. Results of the analysis led to suggestion of 22 draft resilience node locations that can provide a wide range of infrastructure services equitably to New Orleans citizens. This report serves as a proof-of-concept for the Urban Resilience Planning Process, and describes several gaps that should be overcome in order to integrate resilience planning between electric utilities and local governments.

Reducing the resource consumption and emissions of large institutions is an important step toward a sustainable future. Sandia National Laboratories' (SNL) Institutional Transformation (IX) project vision is to provide tools that enable planners to make well-informed decisions concerning sustainability, resource conservation, and emissions reduction across multiple sectors. The building sector has been the primary focus so far because it is the largest consumer of resources for SNL. The IX building module allows users to define the evolution of many buildings over time. The module has been created so that it can be generally applied to any set of DOE-2 ( http://doe2.com ) building models that have been altered to include parameters and expressions required by energy conservation measures (ECM). Once building models have been appropriately prepared, they are checked into a Microsoft Access (r) database. Each building can be represented by many models. This enables the capability to keep a continuous record of models in the past, which are replaced with different models as changes occur to the building. In addition to this, the building module has the capability to apply climate scenarios through applying different weather files to each simulation year. Once the database has been configured, a user interface in Microsoft Excel (r) is used to create scenarios with one or more ECMs. The capability to include central utility buildings (CUBs) that service more than one building with chilled water has been developed. A utility has been created that joins multiple building models into a single model. After using the utility, several manual steps are required to complete the process. Once this CUB model has been created, the individual contributions of each building are still tracked through meters. Currently, 120 building models from SNL's New Mexico and California campuses have been created. This includes all buildings at SNL greater than 10,000 sq. ft., representing 80% of the energy consumption at SNL. SNL has been able to leverage this model to estimate energy savings potential of many competing ECMs. The results helped high level decision makers to create energy reduction goals for SNL. These resources also have multiple applications for use of the models as individual buildings. In addition to the building module, a solar module built in Powersim Studio (r) allows planners to evaluate the potential photovoltaic (PV) energy generation potential for flat plate PV, concentrating solar PV, and concentration solar thermal technologies at multiple sites across SNL's New Mexico campus. Development of the IX modeling framework was a unique collaborative effort among planners and engineers in SNL's facilities division; scientists and computer modelers in SNL's research and development division; faculty from Arizona State University; and energy modelers from Bridger and Paxton Consulting Engineers Incorporated.

Central to protecting our nation's critical infrastructure is the development of methodologies for prioritizing action and supporting resource allocation decisions associated with risk-reduction initiatives. Toward this need a web-based risk assessment framework that promotes the anonymous sharing of results among water utilities is demonstrated. Anonymous sharing of results offers a number of potential advantages such as assistance in recognizing and correcting bias, identification of 'unknown, unknowns', self-assessment and benchmarking for the local utility, treatment of shared assets and/or threats across multiple utilities, and prioritization of actions beyond the scale of a single utility. The constructed framework was demonstrated for three water utilities. Demonstration results were then compared to risk assessment results developed using a different risk assessment application by a different set of analysts.

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The authors designed and conducted experiments in a heterogeneous sand pack where gravity-destabilized nonwetting phase invasion (CO{sub 2} and TCE) could be recorded using high resolution light transmission methods. The heterogeneity structure was designed to be reminiscent of fluvial channel lag cut-and-fill architecture and contain a series of capillary barriers. As invasion progressed, nonwetting phase structure developed a series of fingers and pools; behind the growing front they found nonwetting phase saturation to pulsate in certain regions when viscous forces were low. Through a scale analysis, they derive a series of length scales that describe finger diameter, pool height and width, and regions where pulsation occurs within a heterogeneous porous medium. In all cases, they find that the intrinsic pore scale nature of the invasion process and resulting structure must be incorporated into the analysis to explain experimental results. The authors propose a simple macro-scale structural growth model that assembles length scales for sub-structures to delineate nonwetting phase migration from a source into a heterogeneous domain. For such a model applied at the field scale for DNAPL migration, they expect capillary and gravity forces within the complex subsurface lithology to play the primary roles with viscous forces forming a perturbation on the inviscid phase structure.