Empirically-based correlations are commonly used in modeling and simulation but rarely have rigorous uncertainty quantification that captures the nature of the underlying data. In many applications, a mathematical description for a parameter response to some input stimulus is often either unknown, unable to be measured, or both. Likewise, the data used to observe a parameter response is often noisy, and correlations are derived to approximate the bulk response. Practitioners frequently treat the chosen correlation-sometimes referred to as the "surrogate"or "reduced-order"model of the response-as a constant mathematical description of the relationship between input and output. This assumption, as with any model, is incorrect to some degree, and the uncertainty in the correlation can potentially have significant impacts on system responses. Thus, proper treatment of correlation uncertainty is necessary. In this paper, a method is proposed for high-level abstract sampling of uncertain data correlations. Whereas uncertainty characterization is often assigned to scalar values for direct sampling, functional uncertainty is not always straightforward. A systematic approach for sampling univariable uncertain correlations was developed to perform more rigorous uncertainty analyses and more reliably sample the correlation space. This procedure implements pseudo-random sampling of a correlation with a bounded input range to maintain the correlation form, to respect variable uncertainty across the range, and to ensure function continuity with respect to the input variable.
The supercritical CO2 (sCO2) Brayton Economics Tool (sBET) was developed to evaluate and perform sensitivity studies on recompression closed Brayton cycles (RCBCs). This integrated techno-economic tool calculates key system performance and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) based on user-defined input on key variables such as system size, recuperator effectiveness, turbine inlet temperature, etc. The goal of this integrated tool is to allow system designers to understand the tradeoffs associated with various key design decisions, such as recuperator effectiveness and overall system cost. This work includes a description of LCOE calculation methodology, component system cost models for turbomachinery and heat exchangers based on vendor quotes and published literature, and the results of several parameter studies to identify desirable system parameters.
Weiland, Nathan T.; Lance, Blake; Pidaparti, Sandeep R.
Supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles find potential application with a variety of heat sources including nuclear, concentrated solar (CSP), coal, natural gas, and waste heat sources, and consequently cover a wide range of scales. Most studies to date have focused on the performance of sCO2 power cycles, while economic analyses have been less prevalent, due in large part to the relative scarcity of reliable cost estimates for sCO2 power cycle components. Further, the accuracy of existing sCO2 techno-economic analyses suffer from a small sample set of vendor-based component costs for any given study. Improved accuracy of sCO2 component cost estimation is desired to enable a shift in focus from plant efficiency to economics as a driver for commercialization of sCO2 technology. This study reports on sCO2 component cost scaling relationships that have been developed collaboratively from an aggregate set of vendor quotes, cost estimates, and published literature. As one of the world’s largest supporters of sCO2 research and development, the Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories have access to a considerable pool of vendor component costs that span multiple applications specific to each National Laboratory’s mission, including fossil-fueled sCO2 applications at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), CSP at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and CSP, nuclear, and distributed energy sources at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The resulting cost correlations are relevant to sCO2 components in all these applications, and for scales ranging from 5-750 MWe. This work builds upon prior work at SNL, in which sCO2 component cost models were developed for CSP applications ranging from 1-100 MWe in size. Similar to the earlier SNL efforts, vendor confidentiality has been maintained throughout this collaboration and in the published results. Cost models for each component were correlated from 4-24 individual quotes from multiple vendors, although the individual cost data points are proprietary and not shown. Cost models are reported for radial and axial turbines, integrally-geared and barrel-style centrifugal compressors, high temperature and low temperature recuperators, dry sCO2 coolers, and primary heat exchangers for coal and natural gas fuel sources. These models are applicable to sCO2-specific components used in a variety of sCO2 cycle configurations, and include incremental cost factors for advanced, high temperature materials for relevant components. Non-sCO2-specific costs for motors, gearboxes, and generators have been included to allow cycle designers to explore the cost implications of various turbomachinery configurations. Finally, the uncertainty associated with these component cost models is quantified by using AACE International-style class ratings for vendor estimates, combined with component cost correlation statistics.
Weiland, Nathan T.; Lance, Blake; Pidaparti, Sandeep R.
Supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles find potential application with a variety of heat sources including nuclear, concentrated solar (CSP), coal, natural gas, and waste heat sources, and consequently cover a wide range of scales. Most studies to date have focused on the performance of sCO2 power cycles, while economic analyses have been less prevalent, due in large part to the relative scarcity of reliable cost estimates for sCO2 power cycle components. Further, the accuracy of existing sCO2 techno-economic analyses suffer from a small sample set of vendor-based component costs for any given study. Improved accuracy of sCO2 component cost estimation is desired to enable a shift in focus from plant efficiency to economics as a driver for commercialization of sCO2 technology. This study reports on sCO2 component cost scaling relationships that have been developed collaboratively from an aggregate set of vendor quotes, cost estimates, and published literature. As one of the world’s largest supporters of sCO2 research and development, the Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories have access to a considerable pool of vendor component costs that span multiple applications specific to each National Laboratory’s mission, including fossil-fueled sCO2 applications at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), CSP at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and CSP, nuclear, and distributed energy sources at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The resulting cost correlations are relevant to sCO2 components in all these applications, and for scales ranging from 5-750 MWe. This work builds upon prior work at SNL, in which sCO2 component cost models were developed for CSP applications ranging from 1-100 MWe in size. Similar to the earlier SNL efforts, vendor confidentiality has been maintained throughout this collaboration and in the published results. Cost models for each component were correlated from 4-24 individual quotes from multiple vendors, although the individual cost data points are proprietary and not shown. Cost models are reported for radial and axial turbines, integrally-geared and barrel-style centrifugal compressors, high temperature and low temperature recuperators, dry sCO2 coolers, and primary heat exchangers for coal and natural gas fuel sources. These models are applicable to sCO2-specific components used in a variety of sCO2 cycle configurations, and include incremental cost factors for advanced, high temperature materials for relevant components. Non-sCO2-specific costs for motors, gearboxes, and generators have been included to allow cycle designers to explore the cost implications of various turbomachinery configurations. Finally, the uncertainty associated with these component cost models is quantified by using AACE International-style class ratings for vendor estimates, combined with component cost correlation statistics.
