Publications

Abstract not provided.

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

Abstract not provided.

Smoke from wildfires results in air pollution that can impact the performance of solar photovoltaic plants. Production is impacted by factors including the proximity of the fire to a site of interest, the extent of the wildfire, wind direction, and ambient weather conditions. We construct a model that quantifies the relationships among weather, wildfire-induced pollution, and PV production for utility-scale and distributed generation sites located in the western USA. The regression model identified a 9.4%-37.8% reduction in solar PV production on smokey days. This model can be used to determine expected production losses at impacted sites. We also present an analysis of factors that contribute to solar photovoltaic energy production impacts from wildfires. This work will inform anticipated production changes for more accurate grid planning and operational considerations.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.