Publications

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Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, 'nonconventional' models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior.

A main challenge towards ensuring large-scale and seamless integration of photovoltaic systems is to improve the accuracy of energy yield forecasts, especially in grid areas of high photovoltaic shares. The scope of this paper is to address this issue by presenting a unified methodology for hourly-averaged day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasts with improved accuracy, based on data-driven machine learning techniques and statistical post-processing. More specifically, the proposed forecasting methodology framework comprised of a data quality stage, data-driven power output machine learning model development (artificial neural networks), weather clustering assessment (K-means clustering), post-processing output optimisation (linear regressive correction method) and the final performance accuracy evaluation. The results showed that the application of linear regression coefficients to the forecasted outputs of the developed day-ahead photovoltaic power production neural network improved the performance accuracy by further correcting solar irradiance forecasting biases. The resulting optimised model provided a mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% when applied to historical system datasets. Finally, the model was validated both, at a hot as well as a cold semi-arid climatic location, and the obtained results demonstrated close agreement by yielding forecasting accuracies of mean absolute percentage error of 4.7% and 6.3%, respectively. The validation analysis provides evidence that the proposed model exhibits high performance in both forecasting accuracy and stability.

Optimum and reliable photovoltaic (PV) plant performance requires accurate diagnostics of system losses and failures. Data-driven approaches can classify such losses however, the appropriate PV data features required for accurate classification remains unclear. To avoid misclassification, this study reviews the potential issues associated with inabilities to separate fault conditions that overlap using certain data features. Feature selection techniques that define each feature's importance and identify the set of features necessary for producing the most accurate results are also explored. The experiment quantified the amount of overlap using both maximum power point (MPP) and current and voltage (I-V) curve data sets. The I -V data provided an overall increase in classification accuracy of 8% points above the case where only MPP was available.

Optimum and reliable photovoltaic (PV) plant performance requires accurate diagnostics of system losses and failures. Data-driven approaches can classify such losses however, the appropriate PV data features required for accurate classification remains unclear. To avoid misclassification, this study reviews the potential issues associated with inabilities to separate fault conditions that overlap using certain data features. Feature selection techniques that define each feature's importance and identify the set of features necessary for producing the most accurate results are also explored. The experiment quantified the amount of overlap using both maximum power point (MPP) and current and voltage (I-V) curve data sets. The I -V data provided an overall increase in classification accuracy of 8% points above the case where only MPP was available.

It is a common approach to assume a constant performance drop during the photovoltaic (PV) lifetime. However, operational data demonstrated that PV degradation rate (R_{D}) may exhibit nonlinear behavior, which neglecting it may increase financial risks. This study presents and compares three approaches, based on open-source libraries, which are able to detect and calculate nonlinear R_{D}. Two of these approaches include trend extraction and change-point detection methods, which are frequently used statistical tools. Initially, the processed monthly PV performance ratio (PR) time-series are decomposed in order to extract the trend and change-point analysis techniques are applied to detect changes in the slopes. Once the number of change-points is optimized by each model, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method is applied on the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The third methodology is a regression analysis method based on simultaneous segmentation and slope extraction. Since the 'real' R_{D} value is an unknown parameter, this investigation was based on synthetic datasets with emulated two-step degradation rates. As such, the performance of the three approaches was compared exhibiting mean absolute errors ranging from 0 to 0.46%/year whereas the change-point position detection differed from 0 to 10 months.

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Dust accumulation significantly affects the performance of photovoltaic modules and its impact can be mitigated by various cleaning methods. Optimizing the cleaning frequency is essential to minimize the soiling losses and, at the same time, the costs. However, the effectiveness of cleaning lowers with time because of the reduced energy yield due to degradation. Additionally, economic factors such as the escalation in electricity price and inflation can compound or counterbalance the effect of degradation on the soiling mitigation profits. The present study analyzes the impact of degradation, escalation in electricity price and inflation on the revenues and costs of cleanings and proposes a methodology to maximize the profits of soiling mitigation of any system. The energy performance and soiling losses of a 1 MW system installed in southern Spain were analyzed and integrated with theoretical linear and nonlinear degradation rate patterns. The Levelized Cost of Energy and Net Present Value were used as criteria to identify the optimum cleaning strategies. The results showed that the two metrics convey distinct cleaning recommendations, as they are influenced by different factors. For the given site, despite the degradation effects, the optimum cleaning frequency is found to increase with time of operation.

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