The Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (OFCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of used nuclear fuel (UNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two of the high priorities for UFDC disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling (DOE 2011). These priorities are directly addressed in the UFDC Generic Disposal Systems Analysis (GDSA) work package, which is charged with developing a disposal system modeling and analysis capability for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media (e.g., salt, granite, clay, and deep borehole disposal). This report describes specific GDSA activities in fiscal year 2016 (FY 2016) toward the development of the enhanced disposal system modeling and analysis capability for geologic disposal of nuclear waste. The GDSA framework employs the PFLOTRAN thermal-hydrologic-chemical multi-physics code and the Dakota uncertainty sampling and propagation code. Each code is designed for massively-parallel processing in a high-performance computing (HPC) environment. Multi-physics representations in PFLOTRAN are used to simulate various coupled processes including heat flow, fluid flow, waste dissolution, radionuclide release, radionuclide decay and ingrowth, precipitation and dissolution of secondary phases, and radionuclide transport through engineered barriers and natural geologic barriers to the biosphere. Dakota is used to generate sets of representative realizations and to analyze parameter sensitivity.
Permafrost-dominated coastlines in the Arctic are rapidly disappearing. Arctic coastal erosion rates in the United States have doubled since the middle of the twentieth century and appear to be accelerating. Positive erosion trends have been observed for highly-variable geomorphic conditions across the entire Arctic, suggesting a major (human-timescale) shift in coastal landscape evolution. Unfortunately, irreversible coastal land loss in this region poses a threat to native, industrial, scientific, and military communities. The Arctic coastline is vast, spanning more than 100,000 km across eight nations, ten percent of which is overseen by the United States. Much of area is inaccessible by all-season roads. People and infrastructure, therefore, are commonly located near the coast. The impact of the Arctic coastal erosion problem is widespread. Homes are being lost. Residents are being dispersed and their villages relocated. Shoreline fuel storage and delivery systems are at greater risk. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) operate research facilities along some of the most rapidly eroding sections of coast in the world. The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) is struggling to fortify coastal radar sites, operated to ensure national sovereignty in the air, against the erosion problem. Rapid alterations to the Arctic coastline are facilitated by oceanographic and geomorphic perturbations associated with climate change. Sea ice extent is declining, sea level is rising, sea water temperature is increasing, and permafrost state is changing. The polar orientation of the Arctic exacerbates the magnitude and rate of the environmental forcings that facilitate coastal land area loss. The fundamental mechanics of these processes are understood; their non-linear combination poses an extreme hazard. Tools to accurately predict Arctic coastal erosion do not exist. To obtain an accurate predictive model, a coupling of the influences of evolving wave dynamics, thermodynamics, and sediment dynamics must be developed. The objective of this document is to present the state-of-the-science and outline the key steps for creation of a framework that will allow for improved prediction of Arctic coastal erosion rates. This is the first step towards the quantification of coastal hazards that will allow for sustainable planning and development of Arctic infrastructure.