The goal of this project, started in FY17, is to develop and execute methods of characterizing uncertainty in data products that are developed and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. This report presents the results of uncertainty analyses performed in FY18 for additional scenarios of increased complexity, including different time phases and radionuclide source terms.
The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.
This goal of this project is to address the current inability to assess the overall error and uncertainty of data products developed and distributed by DOE’s Consequence Management (CM) Program.