Publications

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We propose a two-stage scenario-based stochastic optimization problem to determine investments that enhance power system resilience. The proposed optimization problem minimizes the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of load loss to target low-probability high-impact events. We provide results in the context of generator winterization investments in Texas using winter storm scenarios generated from historical data collected from Winter Storm Uri. Results illustrate how the CVaR metric can be used to minimize the tail of the distribution of load loss and illustrate how risk-Aversity impacts investment decisions.

We present a procedure for randomly generating realistic steady-state contingency scenarios based on the historical outage data from a particular event. First, we divide generation into classes and fit a probability distribution of outage magnitude for each class. Second, we provide a method for randomly synthesizing generator resilience levels in a way that preserves the data-driven probability distributions of outage magnitude. Finally, we devise a simple method of scaling the storm effects based on a single global parameter. We apply our methods using data from historical Winter Storm Uri to simulate contingency events for the ACTIVSg2000 synthetic grid on the footprint of Texas.