Publications

Hart, W.E., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2023). Constrained Inference with Hidden Markov Models [Conference Presenation]. 10.2172/2430742

Outkin, A.V., Schulz, P.V., Schulz, T., Tarman, T.D., Pinar, A., & Pinar, A. (2023). Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation With MITRE ATT&CK Evaluations Data. IEEE Transactions on Dependable and Secure Computing, 20(3), pp. 1909-1926. https://doi.org/10.1109/tdsc.2022.3165624

Outkin, A.V., Bixler, N.E., Osborn, D., Andrews, N.C., Walton, F., & Walton, F. (2022). Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2. 10.2172/2004894

Cole, R., Outkin, A.V., Cardona, D., & Cardona, D. (2022). TOpology Adaptive Decision Support for Cyber Defense of Joint Ground Station and Satellite Systems [Conference Presenation]. 10.2172/2005642

Cole, R., Foulk, J.W., Cardona, D., Foulk, J.W., Gonzales, A., Jose, D., Outkin, A.V., Robinson, J., Sturgill, C., Walsh, S., & Walsh, S. (2022). POMDP Modeling for Cyber-Defense of Industrial Control Systems [Conference Presenation]. 10.2172/2003880

Pinar, A., Tarman, T.D., Swiler, L.P., Gearhart, J.L., Hart, D., Vugrin, E., Arguello, B., Geraci, G., Debusschere, B., Hanson, S.T., Outkin, A.V., Thorpe, J.E., Hart, W.E., Sahakian, M.A., Gabert, K.G., Glatter, C., Johnson, E.S., Punla-Green, S., & Punla-Green, S. (2022). Uncertainty Quantification within SECURE LDRD [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/2003628

Outkin, A.V., Schulz, P.V., Schulz, T., Tarman, T.D., Pinar, A., & Pinar, A. (2022). Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation With MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations. IEEE Transactions on Dependable and Secure Computing. 10.1109/TDSC.2022.3165624

Pinar, A., Tarman, T.D., Swiler, L.P., Gearhart, J.L., Hart, D., Vugrin, E., Cruz, G.J., Arguello, B., Geraci, G., Debusschere, B., Hanson, S.T., Outkin, A.V., Thorpe, J.E., Hart, W.E., Sahakian, M.A., Gabert, K.G., Glatter, C., Johnson, E.S., Punla-Green, S., & Punla-Green, S. (2021). Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) (Final Report). 10.2172/1821322

Pinar, A., Tarman, T.D., Swiler, L.P., Gearhart, J.L., Hart, D., Vugrin, E., Cruz, G.J., Arguello, B., Geraci, G., Debusschere, B., Hanson, S.T., Outkin, A.V., Thorpe, J.E., Hart, W.E., Sahakian, M.A., Gabert, K.G., Glatter, C., Johnson, E.S., Punla-Green, A.S., & Punla-Green, A.S. (2021). Science & Engineering of Cyber Security by Uncertainty Quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) HANDBOOK. 10.2172/1820527

Outkin, A.V., Schulz, P.V., Schulz, T., Tarman, T.D., Pinar, A., & Pinar, A. (2021). Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations. 10.2172/1821969

Gunda, T., Aamir, M.S., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2021). Increasing Integration of Data-driven Analyses in Operational Activities through Knowledge Management [Conference Presenation]. 10.2172/1870767

Kobos, P., Drennen, T.E., Outkin, A.V., Webb, E.K., Paap, S.M., Wiryadinata, S., & Wiryadinata, S. (2020). Techno-Economic Analysis: Best Practices and Assessment Tools. 10.2172/1738878

Bauer, T.L., Beyeler, W.E., Finley, P.D., Jeffers, R., Laird, C., Makvandi, M., Outkin, A.V., Safta, C., Simonson, K.M., & Simonson, K.M. (2020). Sandia's Research in Support of COVID-19 Pandemic Response: Computing and Information Sciences. 10.2172/1661021

Bixler, N.E., Outkin, A.V., Walton, F., & Walton, F. (2020). Optional Economic Model in MACCS 4.0 - RDEIM [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1814689

Bixler, N.E., Outkin, A.V., Osborn, D., Andrews, N.C., Walton, F., & Walton, F. (2020). Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code. 10.2172/1763524

Sahakian, M.A., Vugrin, E., Outkin, A.V., Wyss, G.D., Eames, B.K., & Eames, B.K. (2019). Attack detection and strategy optimization in game-theoretic trust models. 10.2172/1569343

Vugrin, E., Cruz, G.J., Reedy, C., Tarman, T.D., Outkin, A.V., Urias, V., & Urias, V. (2019). Cyber Threat Modeling And Validation [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1642953

Outkin, A.V. (2019). Nasdaq Modeling and Complex Systems Prediction: Games as Frames on Reality [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1641767

Outkin, A.V., Eames, B.K., Sahakian, M.A., Walsh, S., Vugrin, E., Heersink, B., Hobbs, J., Wyss, G.D., & Wyss, G.D. (2019). GPLadd: Quantifying trust in government and commercial systems a game-theoretic approach. ACM Transactions on Privacy and Security, 22(3). 10.1145/3326283

Cruz, G.J., Outkin, A.V., Tarman, T.D., Urias, V., Vugrin, E., & Vugrin, E. (2019). SECURE Predictive Cyber Emulation (Emulytics) Task [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1644459

Chen, Y., Campbell, D., Mooney, V., Grijalva, S., Eames, B.K., Outkin, A.V., Vugrin, E., & Vugrin, E. (2018). Power Grid Bad Data Injection Attack Modeling in PRESTIGE [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1639596

Jeffers, R., Staid, A., Baca, M.J., Currie, F.M., Fogleman, W.E., Derosa, S., Wachtel, A., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2018). Analysis of Microgrid Locations Benefitting Community Resilience for Puerto Rico. 10.2172/1530167

Outkin, A.V. (2018). Teaching Game Theory to Kids and Limits of Prediction. 10.2172/1459605

Outkin, A.V., Jeffers, R., & Jeffers, R. (2018). An Infrastructure Resilience Improvements Assessments Framework [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1529460

Eames, B.K., Outkin, A.V., Walsh, S., Vugrin, E., Hamlet, J., Napier, M.P., Riehm, A.C., Helinski, R., Eldridge, J.M., Bertels, A.R., Holmes, M., & Holmes, M. (2017). PRESTIGE: Practical Evaluation and Synthesis of Trust in Government Systems [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1648656

Eames, B.K., Outkin, A.V., Vugrin, E., Wyss, G.D., Jones, S.T., Walsh, S., Hamlet, J., & Hamlet, J. (2017). On Trust Analysis for Microelectronics-Based Systems [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1456554

Jones, S.T., Outkin, A.V., Gearhart, J.L., Hobbs, J., Siirola, J.D., Phillips, C.A., Verzi, S.J., Tauritz, D., Mulder, S.A., Naugle, A.B., & Naugle, A.B. (2016). PLADD: Deterring Attacks on Cyber Systems and Moving Target Defense [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1417561

Outkin, A.V., Bixler, N.E., & Bixler, N.E. (2016). GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1392750

Outkin, A.V., Eames, B.K., Jones, S.T., Vugrin, E., Phillips, C.A., Walsh, S., Hobbs, J., Verzi, S.J., Heersink, B., & Heersink, B. (2016). A Framework for Analysis of Attacker-Defender Interaction in Cyber Systems [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1392766

Outkin, A.V., Eames, B.K., Jones, T., Vugrin, E., Phillips, C.A., Walsh, S., Hobbs, J., Gearhart, J.L., Siirola, J.D., Verzi, S.J., Naugle, A.B., & Naugle, A.B. (2016). Stochastic Adversarial Modeling for Evaluating Trust in Systems and Effectiveness of Moving Target Defense [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1530048

Outkin, A.V., Eames, B.K., Jones, T., Vugrin, E., Phillips, C.A., Walsh, S., Hobbs, J., Gearhart, J.L., Siirola, J.D., Verzi, S.J., Naugle, A.B., & Naugle, A.B. (2016). Stochastic Adversarial Modeling for Evaluating Trust in Systems and Effectiveness of Moving Target Defense [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1530035

Gearhart, J.L., Hobbs, J., Jones, S.T., Mulder, S.A., Naugle, A.B., Outkin, A.V., Phillips, C.A., Siirola, J.D., Tauritz, D., Verzi, S.J., & Verzi, S.J. (2016). A new scheduling problem motivated by moving-target cyberdefense [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1364842

Outkin, A.V., Bixler, N.E., & Bixler, N.E. (2016). Economic Model For GDP And Tangible-Assets Loss Estimation In The MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code. 10.2172/1761934

Kobos, P., la Jenkins, T.N., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2015). Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments: Projecting Technology and Cost Impacts on Reserves and Infrastructure [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1514289

Jones, S.T., Outkin, A.V., Gearhart, J.L., Hobbs, J., Siirola, J.D., Phillips, C.A., Verzi, S.J., Tauritz, D., Mulder, S.A., Naugle, A.B., & Naugle, A.B. (2015). Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD. 10.2172/1222986

Kobos, P., Outkin, A.V., Beyeler, W.E., la Jenkins, T.N., Malczynski, L.A., Myerly, M.M., Vargas, V.N., Tenney, C.M., Borns, D.J., & Borns, D.J. (2015). Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments. 10.2172/1221180

Outkin, A.V., Bixler, N.E., & Bixler, N.E. (2015). GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1514152

Outkin, A.V., Beyeler, W.E., Kobos, P., Borns, D.J., Myerly, M.M., Vargas, V.N., Vugrin, E., & Vugrin, E. (2015). An Agent-Based Model of the U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure: Analyzing Disruptions [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1256271

Outkin, A.V., Kobos, P., Borns, D.J., & Borns, D.J. (2015). An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to the U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1514047

Vugrin, E., Verzi, S.J., Forden, G., Aamir, M.S., Lamb, C., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2015). Measuring & Influencing Resilience of Adapting Flow Networks [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1244482

Outkin, A.V., Bixler, N.E., Vargas, V.N., & Vargas, V.N. (2015). Input-Output Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Imp Acts Estimation. 10.2172/1214306

Beyeler, W.E., Vugrin, E., Forden, G., Aamir, M.S., Verzi, S.J., Outkin, A.V., & Outkin, A.V. (2014). Resilience of Adapting Networks: Results from a Stylized Infrastructure Model. Environment, Systems, & Decisions. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1427206

Outkin, A.V. (2014). On Applications of Game-Theoretic Probability and Defensive Forecasting to Agent-based Market Models [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1367725

Outkin, A.V. (2014). On Applications of Game-Theoretic Probability and Defensive Forecasting to Agent-based Market Models [Conference Poster]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1367736

Outkin, A.V., Vargas, V.N., Kobos, P., Myerly, M.M., Barter, G.E., & Barter, G.E. (2014). AN AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACH TO NON-EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY SHOCK PROPAGATION [Conference]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1142135

Outkin, A.V., Kobos, P., Barter, G.E., Borns, D.J., & Borns, D.J. (2013). Natural Gas Supply Shock Propagation: An Agent-Based Approach [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1673642

Outkin, A.V. (2013). Interaction-driven Learning Approaches to Complex Systems Control and Prediction [Presentation]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1663287

Kelic, A., Beyeler, W.E., Vargas, V.N., Outkin, A.V., Ehlen, M., & Ehlen, M. (2013). DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING THE MACROECONOMIC RISKS AND POLICY IMPACTS OF CYBER ATTACKS. Environment System and Decisions (special issue on cybersecurity risk and decisions). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-013-9479-9

Outkin, A.V. (2013). Interaction-driven Learning Approaches to Complex Systems Control and Prediction [Conference]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1140351

Outkin, A.V. (2012). On Applications of Hybrid Causal-Learning Systems to Complex Systems and Markets Modeling [Conference]. https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1116184