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Uncertainty Quantification of Pressurization Due to Organic Material Decomposition

Keedy, Ryan M.

A new approach for describing the uncertainty associated with organic material decomposition in an abnormal thermal environment is described. Rather than applying multipliers to the pressure predicted by the simulation, the uncertain parameters are incorporated in a broader Latin hypercube sampling study. The resulting distribution gives more information than the pressure multiplier, but similar uncertainty bounds can be derived from a log-normal fit.