Publications Details

sCO₂ Brayton System Market Analysis

Drennen, Thomas E.

Supercritical CO₂ Brayton cycle systems (sCO₂) offer potential benefits over traditional steam plants. The changing economics of the electricity sector favors solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC). Ultimately, the ability of sCO₂ systems to compete depends on the economics and ability to offer additional benefits to the market, such as the ability for dry cooling and their compact size. Updated results show that the projected LCOE for Brayton systems in the 100 to 300 MWe size range are between ${$}$44.8 and ${$}$56.1/MWh (4.48 and 5.61 cents/kWh). This report presents screening tools for assessing the potential market size and concludes that while at these LCOE estimates sCO₂ systems can compete directly against NGCC, there are many hurdles to commercialization, including the need to demonstrate long-term operations at low-cost and ability to quickly ramp for integration with intermittent resources. Additional customer discovery is necessary to fully understand the ability of this technology to solve customer problems that other technologies cannot.