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Lessons learned on Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods from the International HRA Empirical Study

Forester, J.A.; Lois, E.; Dang, V.N.; Bye, A.; Parry, G.; Julius, J.

In the International HRA Empirical Study, human reliability analysis (HRA) method predictions for human failure events (HFEs) in steam generator tube rupture and loss of feedwater scenarios were compared against the performance of real crews in a nuclear power plant control room simulator. The comparisons examined both the qualitative and quantitative HRA method predictions. This paper discusses some of the lessons learned about HRA methods that have been identified to date. General strengths and weaknesses of HRA methods are addressed, along with the reasons for any limitations in the predictive results produced by the methods. However, the discussions of the lessons learned in this paper must be considered a "snapshot." While most of the data has been analyzed, more detailed analysis of the results from specific HRA methods are ongoing and additional information may emerge.