Publications Details
Development of Predictive Models for Fleet Reliability in the Aircraft Industry
Population and sample databases were created with FAA Airworthiness Directives (AD) from 2000 to 2017 to identify failure points in the aircraft industry. Three linear models were created using these databases to find trends that could inform decision makers about the general nature of fleet recalls. The first relates the percent of the fleet affected to the subsystem listed in the AD, the second relates the severity of damage to the aircraft with respect to the subsystem of the aircraft, and the third relates the age of the aircraft to the time of the AD. These models concluded that younger aircraft experience more severe recalls, for all aircraft the severity of damage decreased as more of the fleet was affected by an AD, and active systems experience more severe ADs than passive systems. These trends show that there are significant relationships that exist that can be used in other areas of design.