Publications Details

Developing a new HRA quantification approach from best methods and practices

Dang, Vinh N.; Forester, John A.; Mosleh, Ali

The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring work in response to a Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM) directing an effort to establish a single human reliability analysis (HRA) method for the agency or guidance for the use of multiple methods. One motivation is the variability in Human Failure Event (HFE) probabilities estimated by different analysts and methods. This work considers that a reduction of the variability in the HRA quantification outputs must address three sources: differences in the scope and implementation of qualitative analysis, the qualitative output-quantitative input interface, and the diversity of algorithms for estimating failure probabilities from these inputs. Two companion papers (Mosleh et al. and Hendrickson et al.) describe a proposed qualitative analysis approach The development of the corresponding quantification approach considers a number of alternatives including a module-based hybrid method and a data-driven quantification scheme. This paper presents on-going work and the views of the contributors.