Publications

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Numerical simulations of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets involve the solution of large-scale highly nonlinear systems of equations on complex shallow geometries. This work is concerned with the construction of Schwarz preconditioners for the solution of the associated tangent problems, which are challenging for solvers mainly because of the strong anisotropy of the meshes and wildly changing boundary conditions that can lead to poorly constrained problems on large portions of the domain. Here, two-level GDSW (Generalized Dryja–Smith–Widlund) type Schwarz preconditioners are applied to different land ice problems, i.e., a velocity problem, a temperature problem, as well as the coupling of the former two problems. We employ the MPI-parallel implementation of multi-level Schwarz preconditioners provided by the package FROSch (Fast and Robust Schwarz)from the Trilinos library. The strength of the proposed preconditioner is that it yields out-of-the-box scalable and robust preconditioners for the single physics problems. To our knowledge, this is the first time two-level Schwarz preconditioners are applied to the ice sheet problem and a scalable preconditioner has been used for the coupled problem. The pre-conditioner for the coupled problem differs from previous monolithic GDSW preconditioners in the sense that decoupled extension operators are used to compute the values in the interior of the sub-domains. Several approaches for improving the performance, such as reuse strategies and shared memory OpenMP parallelization, are explored as well. In our numerical study we target both uniform meshes of varying resolution for the Antarctic ice sheet as well as non uniform meshes for the Greenland ice sheet are considered. We present several weak and strong scaling studies confirming the robustness of the approach and the parallel scalability of the FROSch implementation. Among the highlights of the numerical results are a weak scaling study for up to 32 K processor cores (8 K MPI-ranks and 4 OpenMP threads) and 566 M degrees of freedom for the velocity problem as well as a strong scaling study for up to 4 K processor cores (and MPI-ranks) and 68 M degrees of freedom for the coupled problem.

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Using a numerical ice flow model, we study changes in ice shelf buttressing and grounding-line flux due to localized ice thickness perturbations, a proxy for localized changes in sub-ice-shelf melting. From our experiments, applied to idealized (MISMIPC) and realistic (Larsen C) ice shelf domains, we identify a correlation between a locally derived buttressing number on the ice shelf, based on the first principal stress, and changes in the integrated grounding-line flux. The origin of this correlation, however, remains elusive from the perspective of a theoretical or physically based understanding. This and the fact that the correlation is generally much poorer when applied to realistic ice shelf domains motivate us to seek an alternative approach for predicting changes in grounding-line flux.We therefore propose an adjoint-based method for calculating the sensitivity of the integrated grounding-line flux to local changes in ice shelf geometry. We show that the adjoint-based sensitivity is identical to that deduced from pointwise, diagnostic model perturbation experiments. Based on its much wider applicability and the significant computational savings, we propose that the adjoint-based method is ideally suited for assessing grounding-line flux sensitivity to changes in sub-ice-shelf melting.

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In this paper, we continue our efforts to exploit optimization and control ideas as a common foundation for the development of property-preserving numerical methods. Here we focus on a class of scalar advection equations whose solutions have fixed mass in a given Eulerian region and constant bounds in any Lagrangian volume. Our approach separates discretization of the equations from the preservation of their solution properties by treating the latter as optimization constraints. This relieves the discretization process from having to comply with additional restrictions and makes stability and accuracy the sole considerations in its design. A property-preserving solution is then sought as a state that minimizes the distance to an optimally accurate but not property-preserving target solution computed by the scheme, subject to constraints enforcing discrete proxies of the desired properties. Furthermore, we consider two such formulations in which the optimization variables are given by the nodal solution values and suitably defined nodal fluxes, respectively. A key result of the paper reveals that a standard Algebraic Flux Correction (AFC) scheme is a modified version of the second formulation obtained by shrinking its feasible set to a hypercube. In conclusion, we present numerical studies illustrating the optimization-based formulations and comparing them with AFC

Mimetic methods discretize divergence by restricting the Gauss theorem to mesh cells. Because point clouds lack such geometric entities, construction of a compatible meshfree divergence remains a challenge. In this work, we define an abstract Meshfree Mimetic Divergence (MMD) operator on point clouds by contraction of field and virtual face moments. This MMD satisfies a discrete divergence theorem, provides a discrete local conservation principle, and is first-order accurate. We consider two MMD instantiations. The first one assumes a background mesh and uses generalized moving least squares (GMLS) to obtain the necessary field and face moments. This MMD instance is appropriate for settings where a mesh is available but its quality is insufficient for a robust and accurate mesh-based discretization. The second MMD operator retains the GMLS field moments but defines virtual face moments using computationally efficient weighted graph-Laplacian equations. This MMD instance does not require a background grid and is appropriate for applications where mesh generation creates a computational bottleneck. It allows one to trade an expensive mesh generation problem for a scalable algebraic one, without sacrificing compatibility with the divergence operator. We demonstrate the approach by using the MMD operator to obtain a virtual finite-volume discretization of conservation laws on point clouds. Numerical results in the paper confirm the mimetic properties of the method and show that it behaves similarly to standard finite volume methods.

The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 °C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles.We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

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Motivated by the gap between theoretical optimal approximation rates of deep neural networks (DNNs) and the accuracy realized in practice, we seek to improve the training of DNNs. The adoption of an adaptive basis viewpoint of DNNs leads to novel initializations and a hybrid least squares/gradient descent optimizer. We provide analysis of these techniques and illustrate via numerical examples dramatic increases in accuracy and convergence rate for benchmarks characterizing scientific applications where DNNs are currently used, including regression problems and physics-informed neural networks for the solution of partial differential equations.

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Modeling and observations suggest that Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, has begun unstable retreat. Concurrently, oceanographic observations have revealed substantial multiyear variability in the temperature of the ocean water driving retreat through melting of the ice shelf that restrains inland glacier flow. Using an ensemble of 72 ice-sheet model simulations that include an idealized representation of ocean temperature variability, we find that variable ice-shelf melting causes delays in grounding line retreat, mass loss, and sea level contribution relative to steady forcing. Modeled delays are up to 43 years after 500 years of simulation, corresponding to a 10% reduction in glacier mass loss. Delays are primarily caused by asymmetric melt forcing in the presence of variability. For the “warm cavity” conditions beneath Thwaites Ice Shelf, increases in access of warm, deeper water are unable to raise water temperatures in the cavity by much, whereas increases in access of significantly colder, shallow water reduce cavity water temperatures substantially. This leads to lowered mean melt rates under variable ocean temperature forcing. Additionally, about one quarter of the mass loss delay is caused by a nonlinear ice dynamic response to varying ice-shelf thinning rate, which is amplified during the initial phases of unstable, bed-topography-driven retreat. Mass loss rates under variability differ by up to 50% from ensemble mean values at any given time. Our results underscore the need for taking climate variability into account when modeling ice sheet evolution and for continued efforts toward the coupling of ice sheet models to ocean and climate models.

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This report summarizes the work performed under a three year LDRD project aiming to develop mathematical and software foundations for compatible meshfree and particle discretizations. We review major technical accomplishments and project metrics such as publications, conference and colloquia presentations and organization of special sessions and minisimposia. The report concludes with a brief summary of ongoing projects and collaborations that utilize the products of this work.