Publications Details

Radiological/Nuclear (RN) Terrorism: Global Assessment of Threat Intention Drivers

Ackerman, Gary

There is a pressing need in international security policy to better understand the future landscape of radiological and nuclear (RN) dangers and how best to target resources to affect their reduction. The highly dynamic nature of the global geopolitical, social and technological environments means that ther e are many potential forces that might influence the magnitude of current RN dangers, especially those emanating from non-state actors like terrorists. These include: the spread of radical ideology, the growth of civilian nuclear energy in politically unstable regions of the world, the potential for increased nuclear proliferation in those regions, the continued dissemination of WMD information in open sources, and advances in technology that may facilitate VNSA violent non-state actor (VNSA) RN programs. Therefore, this study’s main purpose is to provide an overview of the high level future drivers of RN terrorism as they pertain to the motives and intentions1 of known and potential adversaries. A central approach of this study is to ask the question: Why have there not been more attempts to engage in RN terrorism and, particularly in the case of radiological terrorism, why have those attempts that have been made not been more successful? Once the probable factors that have curtailed the RN terrorist threat thus far have been identified, the study will consider whether there are extant and emerging drivers that might bring about changes in these mitigating factors over the next 10 years. Finally, the study attempts to assess the future dangers of RN terrorism based on these potential changes and what policy approaches can be implemented to reduce the threat, particularly the role of deterrence and dissuasion.