For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step towards quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully-coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interest (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed pre-industrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.
The ECP Proxy Application Project has an annual milestone to assess the state of ECP proxy applications and their role in the overall ECP ecosystem. Our FY22 March/April milestone (ADCD- 504-28) proposed to: Assess the fidelity of proxy applications compared to their respective parents in terms of kernel and I/O behavior, and predictability. Similarity techniques will be applied for quantitative comparison of proxy/parent kernel behavior. MACSio evaluation will continue and support for OpenPMD backends will be explored. The execution time predictability of proxy apps with respect to their parents will be explored through a carefully designed scaling study and code comparisons. Note that in this FY, we also have quantitative assessment milestones that are due in September and are, therefore, not included in the description above or in this report. Another report on these deliverables will be generated and submitted upon completion of these milestones. To satisfy this milestone, the following specific tasks were completed: Study the ability of MACSio to represent I/O workloads of adaptive mesh codes. Re-define the performance counter groups for contemporary Intel and IBM platforms to better match specific hardware components and to better align across platforms (make cross-platform comparison more accurate). Perform cosine similarity study based on the new performance counter groups on the Intel and IBM P9 platforms. Perform detailed analysis of performance counter data to accurately average and align the data to maintain phases across all executions and develop methods to reduce the set of collected performance counters used in cosine similarity analysis. Apply a quantitative similarity comparison between proxy and parent CPU kernels. Perform scaling studies to understand the accuracy of predictability of the parent performance using its respective proxy application. This report presents highlights of these efforts.
As the push towards exascale hardware has increased the diversity of system architectures, performance portability has become a critical aspect for scientific software. We describe the Kokkos Performance Portable Programming Model that allows developers to write single source applications for diverse high-performance computing architectures. Kokkos provides key abstractions for both the compute and memory hierarchy of modern hardware. We describe the novel abstractions that have been added to Kokkos version 3 such as hierarchical parallelism, containers, task graphs, and arbitrary-sized atomic operations to prepare for exascale era architectures. We demonstrate the performance of these new features with reproducible benchmarks on CPUs and GPUs.