An analysis of microgrids to increase resilience was conducted for the island of Puerto Rico. Critical infrastructure throughout the island was mapped to the key services provided by those sectors to help inform primary and secondary service sources during a major disruption to the electrical grid. Additionally, a resilience metric of burden was developed to quantify community resilience, and a related baseline resilience figure was calculated for the area. To improve resilience, Sandia performed an analysis of where clusters of critical infrastructure are located and used these suggested resilience node locations to create a portfolio of 159 microgrid options throughout Puerto Rico. The team then calculated the impact of these microgrids on the region's ability to provide critical services during an outage, and compared this impact to high-level estimates of cost for each microgrid to generate a set of efficient microgrid portfolios costing in the range of $218-$917M. This analysis is a refinement of the analysis delivered on June 01, 2018.
As system of systems (SoS) models become increasingly complex and interconnected a new approach is needed to capture the effects of humans within the SoS. Many real-life events have shown the detrimental outcomes of failing to account for humans in the loop. This research introduces a novel and cross-disciplinary methodology for modeling humans interacting with technologies to perform tasks within an SoS specifically within a layered physical security system use case. Metrics and formulations developed for this new way of looking at SoS termed sociotechnical SoS allow for the quantification of the interplay of effectiveness and efficiency seen in detection theory to measure the ability of a physical security system to detect and respond to threats. This methodology has been applied to a notional representation of a small military Forward Operating Base (FOB) as a proof-of-concept.
System-of-systems modeling has traditionally focused on physical systems rather than humans, but recent events have proved the necessity of considering the human in the loop. As technology becomes more complex and layered security continues to increase in importance, capturing humans and their interactions with technologies within the system-of-systems will be increasingly necessary. After an extensive job-task analysis, a novel type of system-ofsystems simulation model has been created to capture the human-technology interactions on an extra-small forward operating base to better understand performance, key security drivers, and the robustness of the base. In addition to the model, an innovative framework for using detection theory to calculate d’ for individual elements of the layered security system, and for the entire security system as a whole, is under development.