Global Dynamics of Nuclear Weapon Proliferation

The growing diffusion of nuclear weapon technology, material and expertise makes strategic tools for nonproliferation critical

Basic model of the process (created using STELLA software) with the additional structure for motivation and capability, connected to the intended impacts of nonproliferation strategies

Nuclear nonproliferation efforts traditionally have focused on controlling the supply of proliferation-relevant technology, material, and expertise. As barriers to diffusion of all three have been lowered, there is increased acknowledgement of the need to reduce demand for such weapons, and, in cases where efforts to prevent proliferation have failed, the need to develop effective international responses.

With few exceptions, approaches to nonproliferation have remained qualitatively the same over the last sixty years. In addition, many states whose active support is essential, view nonproliferation as primarily a U.S. issue and in some cases see U.S. military superiority as a more serious threat to their security than nuclear proliferation. Such states are often unresponsive to requests to strengthen their nonproliferation efforts.

White Paper Report

A Systems Approach to Assessing Nonproliferation Strategies, Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) 52nd Annual Meeting, July 2011, Palm Desert, CA [PDF]