Uncertainty Quantification

Information to classify policy options based on outcomes and risks of failure…

Public policy seeks to influence complex natural, social, and engineered systems to achieve desired outcomes. Effective public policies are those which combine good outcomes with high reliability such that their choice is robust to a wide range of possible uncertainties. Modeling these complex systems and their potential response to proposed policies can provide decision-makers with an objective basis for policy design.

The goal for this capability development is to:

  • Develop rigorous methods to evaluate and rank modeled policy effectiveness in context of model uncertainty
  • Provide metrics and information to bridge the different levels of focus that characterize complexity modelers and policy makers
  • Provide the information needed to classify potential public policy options based on both their outcomes and their risk of failure

Conference Papers & Reports

Integrating Uncertainty Analysis into Complex-System Modeling to Design Effective Public Policy I: Preliminary Findings, 8th International Conference on Complex Systems, June 2011, Quincy, MA [PDF]

Uncertainty Quantification and Validation of Combined Hydrological and Macroeconomic Analyses, Sandia National Laboratories Report, September 2010

Presentations

Integrating Uncertainty Analysis into Complex-System Modeling for Public Policy Design,8th International Conference on Complex Systems, June 2011, Quincy, MA [PDF]