Pandemic Influenza

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Engineering optimal community-level containment strategies to control pandemic influenza

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In the event that a new influenza strain emerges, an effective vaccine would not be available for six to nine months, ample time for the new strain to spread globally. New, adaptable strategies that are robust to uncertainty must be developed to contain potential influenza pandemics until a vaccine is available. In our effort to engineer optimal community-level containment strategies to control pandemic influenza, we developed a community-level model of disease spread from individual scale up through multiple, linked social networks. The strategic approaches that emerged from our analyses became the cornerstone of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) policy for community response to potential pandemic influenza strains.

Journal Articles

Health Outcomes and Costs of Community Mitigation Strategies for an Influenza Pandemic in the United States. Clinical Infectious Diseases, vol. 50, no. 2, p. 165-174. Expedited publication. January 2010 [PDF] (Online version)  PubMed Summary

Infectious Disease Modeling and Military ReadinessEmerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 15, no. 9. September 2009

Effective, Robust Design of Community Mitigation for Pandemic Influenza: A Systematic Examination of Proposed U.S. GuidancePLoS One, vol. 3, no. 7. July 2008

Rescinding Community Mitigation Strategies in an Influenza PandemicEmerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 14, no. 3. March 2008

Social contact networks for the spread of pandemic influenza in children and teenagersBMC Public Health, vol. 8, no. 61. Highly accessed. February 2008

Targeted Social Distancing Design for Pandemic InfluenzaEmerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 12, no. 11. Expedited publication. November 2006

Reports & Symposia

Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect. Sandia National Laboratories report, October 2007 [PDF]

Local Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza. December 2005 [PDF]


Importance Ranking of Demographic Characteristics that Affect Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies. 2014 Joint Statistical Meeting, August 2014, Boston, MA ) [PDF]

The Effect of Healthcare Environments on a Pandemic Influenza Outbreak. CDC 2010 Conference on Modeling for Public Health Action: From Epidemiology to Operations. Atlanta, GA. December 2010 [PDF]

Loki-Infect 3: A Portable Networked Agent Model for Designing Community-Level Containment Strategies. CDC 2010 Conference on Modeling for Public Health Action. Atlanta, GA. December 2010 [PDF]

A Complex Adaptive Systems Modeling Framework for Public Health Action Exemplified by the Veterans Affairs Modeling Object Oriented Simulation Environment. CDC 2010 Conference on Modeling for Public Health Action. Atlanta, GA. December 2010 [PDF]

Defining & Evaluating Threats and Designing Mitigation Strategies for VA Healthcare. 2010 VHA Comprehensive Emergency Management Program Evaluation and Research Conference. Baltimore, MD. May 2010 [PDF]