Publications / SAND Report

Quantitative resilience analysis through control design

Vugrin, Eric D.; Camphouse, Russell C.; Sunderland, Daniel S.

Critical infrastructure resilience has become a national priority for the U. S. Department of Homeland Security. System resilience has been studied for several decades in many different disciplines, but no standards or unifying methods exist for critical infrastructure resilience analysis. Few quantitative resilience methods exist, and those existing approaches tend to be rather simplistic and, hence, not capable of sufficiently assessing all aspects of critical infrastructure resilience. This report documents the results of a late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project that investigated the development of quantitative resilience through application of control design methods. Specifically, we conducted a survey of infrastructure models to assess what types of control design might be applicable for critical infrastructure resilience assessment. As a result of this survey, we developed a decision process that directs the resilience analyst to the control method that is most likely applicable to the system under consideration. Furthermore, we developed optimal control strategies for two sets of representative infrastructure systems to demonstrate how control methods could be used to assess the resilience of the systems to catastrophic disruptions. We present recommendations for future work to continue the development of quantitative resilience analysis methods.