Publications

Trucano, Timothy G.; Easterling, Robert G.; Dowding, Kevin J.; Paez, Thomas L.; Urbina, Angel U.; Romero, Vicente J.; Rutherford, Brian M.; Hills, Richard G.

This report describes the underlying principles and goals of the Sandia ASCI Verification and Validation Program Validation Metrics Project. It also gives a technical description of two case studies, one in structural dynamics and the other in thermomechanics, that serve to focus the technical work of the project in Fiscal Year 2001.

Hills, Richard G.; Witkowski, Walter R.; Rider, William J.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Urbina, Angel U.

The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is an expert elicitation tool designed to characterize and communicate completeness of the approaches used for computational model definition, verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification associated for an intended application. The primary application of this tool at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has been for physics-based computational simulations in support of nuclear weapons applications. The two main goals of a PCMM evaluation are 1) the communication of computational simulation capability, accurately and transparently, and 2) the development of input for effective planning. As a result of the increasing importance of computational simulation to SNLs mission, the PCMM has evolved through multiple generations with the goal to provide more clarity, rigor, and completeness in its application. This report describes the approach used to develop the fourth generation of the PCMM.

Trucano, Timothy G.; Backus, George A.; Hills, Richard G.

Abstract not provided.

Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

Two major issues associated with model validation are addressed here. First, we present a maximum likelihood approach to define and evaluate a model validation metric. The advantage of this approach is it is more easily applied to nonlinear problems than the methods presented earlier by Hills and Trucano (1999, 2001); the method is based on optimization for which software packages are readily available; and the method can more easily be extended to handle measurement uncertainty and prediction uncertainty with different probability structures. Several examples are presented utilizing this metric. We show conditions under which this approach reduces to the approach developed previously by Hills and Trucano (2001). Secondly, we expand our earlier discussions (Hills and Trucano, 1999, 2001) on the impact of multivariate correlation and the effect of this on model validation metrics. We show that ignoring correlation in multivariate data can lead to misleading results, such as rejecting a good model when sufficient evidence to do so is not available.