This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?
In manufacturing, the conceptual design and detailed design stages are typically regarded as sequential and distinct. Decisions made in conceptual design are often made with little information as to how they would affect detailed design or manufacturing process specification. Many possibilities and unknowns exist in conceptual design where ideas about product shape and functionality are changing rapidly. Few if any tools exist to aid in this difficult, amorphous stage in contrast to the many CAD and analysis tools for detailed design where much more is known about the final product. The Materials Process Design Environment (MPDE) is a collaborative problem solving environment (CPSE) that was developed so geographically dispersed designers in both the conceptual and detailed stage can work together and understand the impacts of their design decisions on functionality, cost and manufacturability.