Optimal mitigation planning for highly disruptive contingencies to a transmission-level power system requires optimization with dynamic power system constraints, due to the key role of dynamics in system stability to major perturbations. We formulate a generalized disjunctive program to determine optimal grid component hardening choices for protecting against major failures, with differential algebraic constraints representing system dynamics (specifically, differential equations representing generator and load behavior and algebraic equations representing instantaneous power balance over the transmission system). We optionally allow stochastic optimal pre-positioning across all considered failure scenarios, and optimal emergency control within each scenario. This novel formulation allows, for the first time, analyzing the resilience interdependencies of mitigation planning, preventive control, and emergency control. Using all three strategies in concert is particularly effective at maintaining robust power system operation under severe contingencies, as we demonstrate on the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9-bus test system using synthetic multi-device outage scenarios. Towards integrating our modeling framework with real threats and more realistic power systems, we explore applying hybrid dynamics to power systems. Our work is applied to basic RL circuits with the ultimate goal of using the methodology to model protective tripping schemes in the grid. Finally, we survey mitigation techniques for HEMP threats and describe a GIS application developed to create threat scenarios in a grid with geographic detail.
This report summarizes the activities performed as part of the Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. We provide an overview of the research done in this project, including work on cyber emulation, uncertainty quantification, and optimization. We present examples of integrated analyses performed on two case studies: a network scanning/detection study and a malware command and control study. We highlight the importance of experimental workflows and list references of papers and presentations developed under this project. We outline lessons learned and suggestions for future work.
Power system utilities continue to strive for increased system resiliency. However, quantifying a baseline system resilience, and deciding the optimal investments to improve their resilience is challenging. This paper discusses a method to create scenarios, based on historical data, that represent the threats of severe weather events, their probability of occurrence, and the system wide consequences they generate. This paper also presents a mixed-integer stochastic nonlinear optimization model which uses the scenarios as an input to determine the optimal investments to reduce the system impacts from those scenarios. The optimization model utilizes a DC power flow to determine the loss of load during an event. Loss of load is the consequence that is minimized in this optimization model as the objective function. The results shown in this paper are from the IEEE RTS-96 three area reliability model. The scenario generation and optimization model have also been utilized on full utility models, but those results cannot be published.