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Recommended Research Directions for Improving the Validation of Complex Systems Models

Vugrin, Eric D.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Swiler, Laura P.; Finley, Patrick D.; Flanagan, Tatiana P.; Naugle, Asmeret B.; Tsao, Jeffrey Y.; Verzi, Stephen J.

Improved validation for models of complex systems has been a primary focus over the past year for the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge. This document describes a set of research directions that are the result of distilling those ideas into three categories of research -- epistemic uncertainty, strong tests, and value of information. The content of this document can be used to transmit valuable information to future research activities, update the Resilience in Complex Systems Research Challenge's roadmap, inform the upcoming FY18 Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) call and research proposals, and facilitate collaborations between Sandia and external organizations. The recommended research directions can provide topics for collaborative research, development of proposals, workshops, and other opportunities.