Characterizing Memory Failures Using Benford’s Law
Fault tolerance is a key challenge as high performance computing systems continue to increase component counts, individual component reliability decreases, and hardware and software complexity increases. To better understand the potential impacts of failures on next-generation systems, significant effort has been devoted to collecting, characterizing and analyzing failures on current systems. These studies require large volumes of data and complex analysis in an attempt to identify statistical properties of the failure data. In this paper, we examine the lifetime of failures on the Cielo supercomputer that was located at Los Alamos National Laboratory, looking specifically at the time between faults on this system. Through this analysis, we show that the time between uncorrectable faults for this system obeys Benford’s law, This law applies to a number of naturally occurring collections of numbers and states that the leading digit is more likely to be small, for example a leading digit of 1 is more likely than 9. We also show that a number of common distributions used to model failures also follow this law. This work provides critical analysis on the distribution of times between failures for extreme-scale systems. Specifically, the analysis in this work could be used as a simple form of failure prediction or used for modeling realistic failures.