Publications

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Cigarette smoking presented the most significant public health challenge in the United States in the 20th Century and remains the single most preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in this country. A number of System Dynamics models exist that inform tobacco control policies. We reviewed them and discuss their contributions. We developed a theory of the societal lifecycle of smoking, using a parsimonious set of feedback loops to capture historical trends and explore future scenarios. Previous work did not explain the long-term historical patterns of smoking behaviors. Much of it used stock-and-flow to represent the decline in prevalence in the recent past. With noted exceptions, information feedbacks were not embedded in these models. We present and discuss our feedback-rich conceptual model and illustrate the results of a series of simulations. A formal analysis shows phenomena composed of different phases of behavior with specific dominant feedbacks associated with each phase. We discuss the implications of our society's current phase, and conclude with simulations of what-if scenarios. Because System Dynamics models must contain information feedback to be able to anticipate tipping points and to help identify policies that exploit leverage in a complex system, we expanded this body of work to provide an endogenous representation of the century-long societal lifecycle of smoking.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Concepts from Complexity Science are valuable and allow a simulation approach for critical infrastructures that is flexible and has wide ranging applications.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is investigating Yucca Mountain, Nevada as a potential site for the disposal of high-level nuclear waste. The site is located near the southwest corner of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in southern Nye County, Nevada. The underground Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) tunnel traverses part of the proposed repository block. Alcove 5, located within the ESF is being used to field two in situ ESF thermal tests: the Single Heater Test (SHT) and the Drift Scale Test (DST). Laboratory test specimens were collected from three sites within Alcove 5 including each in situ field test location and one additional site. The aim of the laboratory tests was to determine site-specific thermal and mechanical rock properties including thermal expansion, thermal conductivity, unconfined compressive strength, and elastic moduli. In this paper, the results obtained for the SHT and DST area characterization are compared with data obtained from other locations at the proposed repository site. Results show that thermal expansion, and mechanical properties of Alcove 5 laboratory specimens are slightly different than the average values obtained on specimens from surface drillholes.

Specimens were tested from four thermal-mechanical units, namely Tiva Canyon (TCw), Paintbrush Tuff (PTn), and two Topopah Spring units (TSw1 and TSw2), and from two lithologies, i.e., welded devitrified (TCw, TSw1, TSw2) and nonwelded vitric tuff (PTn). Thermal conductivities in W(mk){sup {minus}1} averaged over all boreholes, ranged (depending upon temperature and saturation state) from 1.2 to 1.9 for TCw, from 0.4 to 0.9 for PTn, from 1.0 to 1.7 for TSw1, and from 1.5 to 2.3 for TSw2. Mean coefficients of thermal expansion were highly temperature dependent and values, averaged over all boreholes, ranged (depending upon temperature and saturation state) from 6.6 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} to 49 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} C{sup {minus}1} for TCw, from the negative range to 16 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} {center_dot} {degree}C{sup {minus}1} for PTn, from 6.3 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} to 44 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} C{sup {minus}1} for TSw1, and from 6.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} to 37 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} {center_dot} {degree}C{sup {minus}1} for TSw2. Mean values of thermal capacitance in J/cm{sup 3}K (averaged overall specimens) ranged from 1.6 J to 2.1 for TSw1 and from 1.8 to 2.5 for TSw2. In general, the lithostratigraphic classifications of rock assigned by the USGS are consistent with the mineralogical data presented in this report.

Dynamic compaction of mine-run salt is being investigated for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), where compacted salt is being considered for repository sealing applications. One large-scale and two intermediate-scale dynamic compaction demonstrations were conducted. Initial fractional densities of the compacted salt range form 0.85 to 0.90, and permeabilities vary. Dynamically-compacted specimens were further consolidated in the laboratory by application of hydrostatic pressure. Permeability as a function of density was determined, and consolidation microprocesses were studied. Experimental results, in conjunction with modeling results, indicate that the compacted salt will function as a viable seal material.