A key component of the CLDERA project will be generating simulation data for use in tracing simulated pathways from the eruption source to its impacts, demonstrating robust attribution of impacts, and systematically evaluating uncertainty. Simulations will be performed with version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM v2). More information on E3SM can be found at www.e3sm.org. As E3SM’s computational science lead, Sandia is well-positioned to “get under the hood” of the E3SM, instrumenting it in ways that can enable detection of source-impact pathways while running simulations.
Modifications for prognostic volcanic aerosols in the model are being implemented under CLDERA to simulate the chemical and microphysical evolution of the volcanically erupted sulfur-dioxide gas into sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. The new implementation will be validated by comparing simulated aerosols from the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with benchmark simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 (WACCM6) and observations.
With method robustness central to CLDERA’s design, sensitivity studies exploring eruption characteristics and E3SM model parameterizations are planned. Using these studies, we will examine characterization of the location and magnitude of an eruption that may produce attributable impacts, the susceptibility of a pathway to initial conditions, the variability of the impacts, and uncertainties in aerosol and cloud microphysics model representations.