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Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

Kalashnikova, Irina; Peterson, Kara J.; Powell, Amy J.; Jakeman, John D.; Roesler, Erika L.

For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step towards quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully-coupled, ultra-low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interest (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed pre-industrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the CLUBB (Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher-resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

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Local limits of detection for anthropogenic aerosol-cloud interactions

Shand, Lyndsay S.; Larson, Kelsie M.; Staid, Andrea S.; Roesler, Erika L.; Lyons, Donald A.; Simonson, Katherine M.; Patel, Lekha P.; Hickey, James J.; Gray, Skyler D.

Ship tracks are quasi-linear cloud patterns produced from the interaction of ship emissions with low boundary layer clouds. They are visible throughout the diurnal cycle in satellite images from space-borne assets like the Advanced Baseline Imagers (ABI) aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R). However, complex atmospheric dynamics often make it difficult to identify and characterize the formation and evolution of tracks. Ship tracks have the potential to increase a cloud's albedo and reduce the impact of global warming. Thus, it is important to study these patterns to better understand the complex atmospheric interactions between aerosols and clouds to improve our climate models, and examine the efficacy of climate interventions, such as marine cloud brightening. Over the course of this 3-year project, we have developed novel data-driven techniques that advance our ability to assess the effects of ship emissions on marine environments and the risks of future marine cloud brightening efforts. The three main innovative technical contributions we will document here are a method to track aerosol injections using optical flow, a stochastic simulation model for track formations and an automated detection algorithm for efficient identification of ship tracks in large datasets.

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The Aeras Next Generation Global Atmosphere Model

Bosler, Peter A.; Bova, S.W.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.; Guba, Oksana G.; Overfelt, James R.; Roesler, Erika L.; Salinger, Andrew G.; Smith, Thomas M.; Kalashnikova, Irina; Watkins, Jerry E.

The Next Generation Global Atmosphere Model LDRD project developed a suite of atmosphere models: a shallow water model, an x - z hydrostatic model, and a 3D hydrostatic model, by using Albany, a finite element code. Albany provides access to a large suite of leading-edge Sandia high- performance computing technologies enabled by Trilinos, Dakota, and Sierra. The next-generation capabilities most relevant to a global atmosphere model are performance portability and embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ). Performance portability is the capability for a single code base to run efficiently on diverse set of advanced computing architectures, such as multi-core threading or GPUs. Embedded UQ refers to simulation algorithms that have been modified to aid in the quantifying of uncertainties. In our case, this means running multiple samples for an ensemble concurrently, and reaping certain performance benefits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches here as a prelude to introducing them into ACME.

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Monitoring Understanding and Predicting the Growth of Methane Emissions in the Arctic

Bambha, Ray B.; LaFranchi, Brian L.; Schrader, Paul E.; Roesler, Erika L.; Taylor, Mark A.; Lucero, Daniel A.; Ivey, Mark D.; Michelsen, Hope A.

Concern over Arctic methane (CH 4 ) emissions has increased following recent discoveries of poorly understood sources and predictions that methane emissions from known sources will grow as Arctic temperatures increase. New efforts are required to detect increases and explain sources without being confounded by the multiple sources. Methods for distinguishing different sources are critical. We conducted measurements of atmospheric methane and source tracers and performed baseline global atmospheric modeling to begin assessing the climate impact of changes in atmospheric methane. The goal of this project was to address uncertainties in Arctic methane sources and their potential impact on climate by (1) deploying newly developed trace-gas analyzers for measurements of methane, methane isotopologues, ethane, and other tracers of methane sources in the Barrow, AK, (2) characterizing methane sources using high-resolution atmospheric chemical transport models and tracer measurements, and (3) modeling Arctic climate using the state-of-the-art high- resolution Spectral Element Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-SE).

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Stride Search: A general algorithm for storm detection in high-resolution climate data

Geoscientific Model Development

Bosler, Peter A.; Roesler, Erika L.; Taylor, Mark A.; Mundt, Miranda R.

This article discusses the problem of identifying extreme climate events such as intense storms within large climate data sets. The basic storm detection algorithm is reviewed, which splits the problem into two parts: a spatial search followed by a temporal correlation problem. Two specific implementations of the spatial search algorithm are compared: the commonly used grid point search algorithm is reviewed, and a new algorithm called Stride Search is introduced. The Stride Search algorithm is defined independently of the spatial discretization associated with a particular data set. Results from the two algorithms are compared for the application of tropical cyclone detection, and shown to produce similar results for the same set of storm identification criteria. Differences between the two algorithms arise for some storms due to their different definition of search regions in physical space. The physical space associated with each Stride Search region is constant, regardless of data resolution or latitude, and Stride Search is therefore capable of searching all regions of the globe in the same manner. Stride Search's ability to search high latitudes is demonstrated for the case of polar low detection. Wall clock time required for Stride Search is shown to be smaller than a grid point search of the same data, and the relative speed up associated with Stride Search increases as resolution increases.

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Modeling of Arctic Storms with a Variable High-Resolution General Circulation Model

Roesler, Erika L.; Bosler, Peter A.; Taylor, Mark A.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research project, “Water Cycle and Climate Extremes Modeling” is improving our understanding and modeling of regional details of the Earth’s water cycle. Sandia is using high resolution model behavior to investigate storms in the Arctic.

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18 Results