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Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis: Final Report

Brost, Randolph B.; Carrier, Erin E.; Carroll, Michelle C.; Groth, Katrina M.; Kegelmeyer, William P.; Leung, Vitus J.; Link, Hamilton E.; Patterson, Andrew J.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Richter, Samuel N.; Robinson, David G.; Staid, Andrea S.; Woodbridge, Diane M.-K.

This report summarizes the work performed under the Sandia LDRD project "Adverse Event Prediction Using Graph-Augmented Temporal Analysis." The goal of the project was to de- velop a method for analyzing multiple time-series data streams to identify precursors provid- ing advance warning of the potential occurrence of events of interest. The proposed approach combined temporal analysis of each data stream with reasoning about relationships between data streams using a geospatial-temporal semantic graph. This class of problems is relevant to several important topics of national interest. In the course of this work we developed new temporal analysis techniques, including temporal analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, temporal shift algorithms to refine forecasts, and a version of Ripley's K-function extended to support temporal precursor identification. This report summarizes the project's major accomplishments, and gathers the abstracts and references for the publication sub- missions and reports that were prepared as part of this work. We then describe work in progress that is not yet ready for publication.

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Computing quality scores and uncertainty for approximate pattern matching in geospatial semantic graphs

Statistical Analysis and Data Mining

Stracuzzi, David J.; Brost, Randolph B.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Robinson, David G.; Wilson, Alyson G.; Woodbridge, Diane W.

Geospatial semantic graphs provide a robust foundation for representing and analyzing remote sensor data. In particular, they support a variety of pattern search operations that capture the spatial and temporal relationships among the objects and events in the data. However, in the presence of large data corpora, even a carefully constructed search query may return a large number of unintended matches. This work considers the problem of calculating a quality score for each match to the query, given that the underlying data are uncertain. We present a preliminary evaluation of three methods for determining both match quality scores and associated uncertainty bounds, illustrated in the context of an example based on overhead imagery data.

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Preliminary Results on Uncertainty Quantification for Pattern Analytics

Stracuzzi, David J.; Brost, Randolph B.; Chen, Maximillian G.; Malinas, Rebecca; Peterson, Matthew G.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Robinson, David G.; Woodbridge, Diane W.

This report summarizes preliminary research into uncertainty quantification for pattern ana- lytics within the context of the Pattern Analytics to Support High-Performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER) project. The primary focus of PANTHER was to make large quantities of remote sensing data searchable by analysts. The work described in this re- port adds nuance to both the initial data preparation steps and the search process. Search queries are transformed from does the specified pattern exist in the data? to how certain is the system that the returned results match the query? We show example results for both data processing and search, and discuss a number of possible improvements for each.

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Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

Ivey, Mark D.; Robinson, David G.; Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.; Peterson, Kara J.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G.; Swiler, Laura P.; Desilets, Darin M.; Reinert, Rhonda K.

This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

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Statistically significant relational data mining :

Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus J.; Phillips, Cynthia A.; Pinar, Ali P.; Robinson, David G.

This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.

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SNL software manual for the ACS Data Analytics Project

Stearley, Jon S.; Robinson, David G.; Hooper, Russell H.; Stickland, Michael S.; McLendon, William C.; Rodrigues, Arun

In the ACS Data Analytics Project (also known as 'YumYum'), a supercomputer is modeled as a graph of components and dependencies, jobs and faults are simulated, and component fault rates are estimated using the graph structure and job pass/fail outcomes. This report documents the successful completion of all SNL deliverables and tasks, describes the software written by SNL for the project, and presents the data it generates. Readers should understand what the software tools are, how they fit together, and how to use them to reproduce the presented data and additional experiments as desired. The SNL YumYum tools provide the novel simulation and inference capabilities desired by ACS. SNL also developed and implemented a new algorithm, which provides faster estimates, at finer component granularity, on arbitrary directed acyclic graphs.

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Tracking topic birth and death in LDA

Wilson, Andrew T.; Robinson, David G.

Most topic modeling algorithms that address the evolution of documents over time use the same number of topics at all times. This obscures the common occurrence in the data where new subjects arise and old ones diminish or disappear entirely. We propose an algorithm to model the birth and death of topics within an LDA-like framework. The user selects an initial number of topics, after which new topics are created and retired without further supervision. Our approach also accommodates many of the acceleration and parallelization schemes developed in recent years for standard LDA. In recent years, topic modeling algorithms such as latent semantic analysis (LSA)[17], latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)[10] and their descendants have offered a powerful way to explore and interrogate corpora far too large for any human to grasp without assistance. Using such algorithms we are able to search for similar documents, model and track the volume of topics over time, search for correlated topics or model them with a hierarchy. Most of these algorithms are intended for use with static corpora where the number of documents and the size of the vocabulary are known in advance. Moreover, almost all current topic modeling algorithms fix the number of topics as one of the input parameters and keep it fixed across the entire corpus. While this is appropriate for static corpora, it becomes a serious handicap when analyzing time-varying data sets where topics come and go as a matter of course. This is doubly true for online algorithms that may not have the option of revising earlier results in light of new data. To be sure, these algorithms will account for changing data one way or another, but without the ability to adapt to structural changes such as entirely new topics they may do so in counterintuitive ways.

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A Model-Based Case for Redundant Computation

Stearley, Jon S.; Robinson, David G.; Ferreira, Kurt

Despite its seemingly nonsensical cost, we show through modeling and simulation that redundant computation merits full consideration as a resilience strategy for next-generation systems. Without revolutionary breakthroughs in failure rates, part counts, or stable-storage bandwidths, it has been shown that the utility of Exascale systems will be crushed by the overheads of traditional checkpoint/restart mechanisms. Alternate resilience strategies must be considered, and redundancy is a proven unrivaled approach in many domains. We develop a distribution-independent model for job interrupts on systems of arbitrary redundancy, adapt Daly’s model for total application runtime, and find that his estimate for optimal checkpoint interval remains valid for redundant systems. We then identify conditions where redundancy is more cost effective than non-redundancy. These are done in the context of the number one supercomputers of the last decade, showing that thorough consideration of redundant computation is timely - if not overdue.

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Assessing the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty:Interdependencies among the U.S. States

Backus, George A.; Trucano, Timothy G.; Robinson, David G.; Adams, Brian M.; Richards, Elizabeth H.; Siirola, John D.; Boslough, Mark B.; Taylor, Mark A.; Conrad, Stephen H.; Kelic, Andjelka; Roach, Jesse D.; Warren, Drake E.; Ballantine, Marissa D.; Stubblefield, W.A.; Snyder, Lillian A.; Finley, Ray E.; Horschel, Daniel S.; Ehlen, Mark E.; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Stamber, Kevin L.; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Vargas, Vanessa N.; Zagonel, Aldo A.

Abstract not provided.

16 Results
16 Results