## A Variable Resolution Spectral Element Dynamical Core in the Community Atmospheric Model

Abstract not provided.

Abstract not provided.

Climate models have a large number of inputs and outputs. In addition, diverse parameters sets can match observations similarly well. These factors make calibrating the models difficult. But as the Earth enters a new climate regime, parameters sets may cease to match observations. History matching is necessary but not sufficient for good predictions. We seek a 'Pareto optimal' ensemble of calibrated parameter sets for the CCSM climate model, in which no individual criteria can be improved without worsening another. One Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm (MOGA) optimization typically requires thousands of simulations but produces an ensemble of Pareto optimal solutions. Our simulation budget of 500-1000 runs allows us to perform the MOGA optimization once, but with far fewer evaluations than normal. We devised an analytic test problem to aid in the selection MOGA settings. The test problem's Pareto set is the surface of a 6 dimensional hypersphere with radius 1 centered at the origin, or rather the portion of it in the [0,1] octant. We also explore starting MOGA from a space-filling Latin Hypercube sample design, specifically Binning Optimal Symmetric Latin Hypercube Sampling (BOSLHS), instead of Monte Carlo (MC). We compare the Pareto sets based on: their number of points, N, larger is better; their RMS distance, d, to the ensemble's center, 0.5553 is optimal; their average radius, {mu}(r), 1 is optimal; their radius standard deviation, {sigma}(r), 0 is optimal. The estimated distributions for these metrics when starting from MC and BOSLHS are shown in Figs. 1 and 2.

Because the potential effects of climate change are more severe than had previously been thought, increasing focus on uncertainty quantification is required for risk assessment needed by policy makers. Current scientific efforts focus almost exclusively on establishing best estimates of future climate change. However, the greatest consequences occur in the extreme tail of the probability density functions for climate sensitivity (the 'high-sensitivity tail'). To this end, we are exploring the impacts of newly postulated, highly uncertain, but high-consequence physical mechanisms to better establish the climate change risk. We define consequence in terms of dramatic change in physical conditions and in the resulting socioeconomic impact (hence, risk) on populations. Although we are developing generally applicable risk assessment methods, we have focused our initial efforts on uncertainty and risk analyses for the Arctic region. Instead of focusing on best estimates, requiring many years of model parameterization development and evaluation, we are focusing on robust emergent phenomena (those that are not necessarily intuitive and are insensitive to assumptions, subgrid-parameterizations, and tunings). For many physical systems, under-resolved models fail to generate such phenomena, which only develop when model resolution is sufficiently high. Our ultimate goal is to discover the patterns of emergent climate precursors (those that cannot be predicted with lower-resolution models) that can be used as a 'sensitivity fingerprint' and make recommendations for a climate early warning system that would use satellites and sensor arrays to look for the various predicted high-sensitivity signatures. Our initial simulations are focused on the Arctic region, where underpredicted phenomena such as rapid loss of sea ice are already emerging, and because of major geopolitical implications associated with increasing Arctic accessibility to natural resources, shipping routes, and strategic locations. We anticipate that regional climate will be strongly influenced by feedbacks associated with a seasonally ice-free Arctic, but with unknown emergent phenomena.

The shallow water equations are used as a test for many atmospheric models because the solution mimics the horizontal aspects of atmospheric dynamics while the simplicity of the equations make them useful for numerical experiments. This study describes a high-order element-based Galerkin method for the global shallow water equations using absolute vorticity, divergence, and fluid depth (atmospheric thickness) as the prognostic variables, while the wind field is a diagnostic variable that can be calculated from the stream function and velocity potential (the Laplacians of which are the vorticity and divergence, respectively). The numerical method employed to solve the shallow water system is based on the discontinuous Galerkin and spectral element methods. The discontinuous Galerkin method, which is inherently conservative, is used to solve the equations governing two conservative variables - absolute vorticity and atmospheric thickness (mass). The spectral element method is used to solve the divergence equation and the Poisson equations for the velocity potential and the stream function. Time integration is done with an explicit strong stability-preserving second-order Runge-Kutta scheme and the wind field is updated directly from the vorticity and divergence at each stage, and the computational domain is the cubed sphere. A stable steady-state test is run and convergence results are provided, showing that the method is high-order accurate. Additionally, two tests without analytic solutions are run with comparable results to previous high-resolution runs found in the literature.

The cubed sphere geometry, obtained by inscribing a cube in a sphere and mapping points between the two surfaces using a gnomonic (central) projection, is commonly used in atmospheric models because it is free of polar singularities and is well-suited for parallel computing. Global meshes on the cubed-sphere typically project uniform (square) grids from each face of the cube onto the sphere, and if refinement is desired then it is done with non-conforming meshes - overlaying the area of interest with a finer uniform mesh, which introduces so-called hanging nodes on edges along the boundary of the fine resolution area. An alternate technique is to tile each face of the cube with quadrilaterals without requiring the quads to be rectangular. These meshes allow for refinement in areas of interest with a conforming mesh, providing a smoother transition between high and low resolution portions of the grid than non-conforming refinement. The conforming meshes are demonstrated in HOMME, NCAR's High Order Method Modeling Environment, where two modifications have been made: the dependence on uniform meshes has been removed, and the ability to read arbitrary quadrilateral meshes from a previously-generated file has been added. Numerical results come from a conservative spectral element method modeling a selection of the standard shallow water test cases.

5 Results