Alexander (Sasha) Outkin

R&D S&E, Systems Research and Analysis

Biography

Alexander (Sasha) Outkin is a Principal member of Technical Staff in Resilience and Regulatory Effects at Sandia National Laboratories. He has more than 10 years of experience in economic and financial modeling and project leadership that includes original work in such areas as agent-based and microstructure modeling of financial markets, network and game-theoretic modeling, as well as economic and financial impacts modeling for NISAC while at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Sasha graduated from Moscow State University with an M.S. in theoretical physics and from Virginia Tech with a Ph.D. in Economics. While studying theoretical physics he developed an interest in complex self-organizing systems that lead to his Ph.D. dissertation addressing the emergence of cooperation in a network of locally interacting agents and expanded game theory in the domain of evolving, non-equilibrium systems. His earlier work in agent-based and microstructure modeling of the NASDAQ stock market and of the individual market-making strategies successfully predicted important market changes ahead of the decimalization implementation. This work became the basis of a book written with Vince Darley on NASDAQ microstructure, and agent-based modeling (A NASDAQ Market Simulation: Insights on a Major Market from the Science of Complex Adaptive Systems, World Scientific Publishing. March 2007). CV coming soon;

Publications

Ali Pinar, Thomas Tarman, Laura Swiler, Jared Gearhart, Derek Hart, Eric Vugrin, Gerardo Cruz, Bryan Arguello, Gianluca Geraci, Bert Debusschere, Seth Hanson, Alexander Outkin, Jamie Thorpe, William Hart, Meghan Sahakian, Kasimir Gabert, Casey Glatter, Emma Johnson, She?ifa Punla-Green, (2021). Science and Engineering of Cybersecurity by Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) (Final Report) https://doi.org/10.2172/1821322 Publication ID: 75817

Ali Pinar, Thomas Tarman, Laura Swiler, Jared Gearhart, Derek Hart, Eric Vugrin, Gerardo Cruz, Bryan Arguello, Gianluca Geraci, Bert Debusschere, Seth Hanson, Alexander Outkin, Jamie Thorpe, William Hart, Meghan Sahakian, Kasimir Gabert, Casey Glatter, Emma Johnson, She?ifa Punla-Green, (2021). Science & Engineering of Cyber Security by Uncertainty Quantification and Rigorous Experimentation (SECURE) HANDBOOK https://doi.org/10.2172/1820527 Publication ID: 75697

Alexander Outkin, Patricia Schulz, Timothy Schulz, Thomas Tarman, Ali Pinar, (2021). Defender Policy Evaluation and Resource Allocation against MITRE ATT&CK Data and Evaluations https://doi.org/10.2172/1821969 Publication ID: 79070

Thushara Gunda, Munaf Aamir, Alexander Outkin, (2021). Increasing Integration of Data-driven Analyses in Operational Activities through Knowledge Management https://doi.org/10.2172/1870767 Publication ID: 78669

Peter Kobos, Thomas Drennen, Alexander Outkin, Erik Webb, Scott Paap, Steven Wiryadinata, (2020). Techno-Economic Analysis: Best Practices and Assessment Tools https://doi.org/10.2172/1738878 Publication ID: 72101

Nathan Bixler, Alexander Outkin, Fotini Walton, (2020). Optional Economic Model in MACCS 4.0 – RDEIM https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1814689 Publication ID: 74612

Eric Vugrin, Gerardo Cruz, Christian Reedy, Thomas Tarman, Alexander Outkin, Vincent Urias, (2019). Cyber Threat Modeling And Validation https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1642953 Publication ID: 65817

Meghan Sahakian, Eric Vugrin, Alexander Outkin, Gregory Wyss, Brandon Eames, (2019). Attack detection and strategy optimization in game-theoretic trust models https://doi.org/10.2172/1569343 Publication ID: 65123

Alexander Outkin, (2019). Nasdaq Modeling and Complex Systems Prediction: Games as Frames on Reality https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1641767 Publication ID: 70631

Alexander Outkin, Brandon Eames, Meghan Galiardi, Sarah Walsh, Eric Vugrin, Byron Heersink, Jacob Hobbs, Gregory Wyss, (2019). GPLadd: Quantifying trust in government and commercial systems a game-theoretic approach ACM Transactions on Privacy and Security https://doi.org/10.1145/3326283 Publication ID: 68234

Gerardo Cruz, Alexander Outkin, Thomas Tarman, Vincent Urias, Eric Vugrin, (2019). SECURE Predictive Cyber Emulation (Emulytics) Task https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1644459 Publication ID: 67324

Yu-Cheng Chen, Dustin Campbell, Vincent Mooney, Santiago Grijalva, Brandon Eames, Alexander Outkin, Eric Vugrin, (2019). Power Grid Bad Data Injection Attack Modeling in PRESTIGE https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1639596 Publication ID: 64260

Robert Jeffers, Andrea Staid, Michael Baca, Frank Currie, William Fogleman, Sean DeRosa, Amanda Wachtel, Alexander Outkin, (2018). Analysis of Microgrid Locations Benefitting Community Resilience for Puerto Rico https://doi.org/10.2172/1481633 Publication ID: 59345

Alexander Outkin, (2018). Teaching Game Theory to Kids and Limits of Prediction https://doi.org/10.2172/1459605 Publication ID: 62929

Alexander Outkin, Robert Jeffers, (2018). An Infrastructure Resilience Improvements Assessments Framework https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1529460 Publication ID: 62674

Brandon Eames, Alexander Outkin, Sarah Walsh, Eric Vugrin, Jason Hamlet, Matthew Napier, Andrew Riehm, Ryan Helinski, John Eldridge, Alex Bertels, Michael Holmes, (2017). PRESTIGE: Practical Evaluation and Synthesis of Trust in Government Systems https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1648656 Publication ID: 57676

Brandon Eames, Alexander Outkin, Eric Vugrin, Gregory Wyss, Stephen Jones, Sarah Walsh, Jason Hamlet, (2017). On Trust Analysis for Microelectronics-Based Systems https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1456554 Publication ID: 55826

Stephen Jones, Alexander Outkin, Jared Gearhart, Jacob Hobbs, John Siirola, Cynthia Phillips, Stephen Verzi, Daniel Tauritz, Samuel Mulder, Asmeret Naugle, (2017). PLADD: Deterring Attacks on Cyber Systems and Moving Target Defense https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1417561 Publication ID: 52843

Alexander Outkin, Nathan Bixler, (2016). GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1392750 Publication ID: 52182

Alexander Outkin, Brandon Eames, Stephen Jones, Eric Vugrin, Cynthia Phillips, Sarah Walsh, Jacob Hobbs, Stephen Verzi, Byron Heersink, (2016). A Framework for Analysis of Attacker-Defender Interaction in Cyber Systems https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1392766 Publication ID: 52210

Alexander Outkin, Brandon Eames, Todd Jones, Eric Vugrin, Cynthia Phillips, Sarah Walsh, Jacob Hobbs, Jared Gearhart, John Siirola, Stephen Verzi, Asmeret Naugle, (2016). Stochastic Adversarial Modeling for Evaluating Trust in Systems and Effectiveness of Moving Target Defense https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1530048 Publication ID: 50475

Jared Gearhart, Jacob Hobbs, Stephen Jones, Samuel Mulder, Asmeret Naugle, Alexander Outkin, Cynthia Phillips, John Siirola, Daniel Tauritz, Stephen Verzi, (2016). A new scheduling problem motivated by moving-target cyberdefense https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1364842 Publication ID: 49068

Peter Kobos, La Jenkins, Alexander Outkin, (2015). Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments: Projecting Technology and Cost Impacts on Reserves and Infrastructure https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1514289 Publication ID: 46008

Stephen Jones, Alexander Outkin, Jared Gearhart, Jacob Hobbs, John Siirola, Cynthia Phillips, Stephen Verzi, Daniel Tauritz, Samuel Mulder, Asmeret Naugle, (2015). Evaluating Moving Target Defense with PLADD https://doi.org/10.2172/1222986 Publication ID: 45812

Alexander Outkin, Nathan Bixler, (2015). GDP-Based Economic Model for MACCS Nuclear Accident Offsite Consequence Estimation https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1514152 Publication ID: 45394

Peter Kobos, Alexander Outkin, Walter Beyeler, La Jenkins, Leonard Malczynski, Melissa Myerly, Vanessa Vargas, Craig Tenney, David Borns, (2015). Natural Gas Value-Chain and Network Assessments https://doi.org/10.2172/1221180 Publication ID: 45558

Alexander Outkin, Walter Beyeler, Peter Kobos, David Borns, Melissa Myerly, Vanessa Vargas, Eric Vugrin, (2015). An Agent-Based Model of the U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure: Analyzing Disruptions https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1256271 Publication ID: 43762

Alexander Outkin, Peter Kobos, David Borns, (2015). An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to the U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1514047 Publication ID: 43442

Eric Vugrin, Stephen Verzi, Geoffrey Forden, Munaf Aamir, Christopher Lamb, Alexander Outkin, (2015). Measuring & Influencing Resilience of Adapting Flow Networks https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1244482 Publication ID: 42580

Alexander Outkin, Nathan Bixler, Vanessa Vargas, (2015). Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹ https://doi.org/10.2172/1214306 Publication ID: 45395

Walter Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, Geoffrey Forden, Munaf Aamir, Stephen Verzi, Alexander Outkin, (2015). Resilience of Adapting Networks: Results from a Stylized Infrastructure Model https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1427206 Publication ID: 42673

Alexander Outkin, (2014). On Applications of Game-Theoretic Probability and Defensive Forecasting to Agent-based Market Models https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1367725 Publication ID: 39447

Alexander Outkin, Alexander Outkin, (2014). On Applications of Game-Theoretic Probability and Defensive Forecasting to Agent-based Market Models https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1367736 Publication ID: 39464

Alexander Outkin, Vanessa Vargas, Peter Kobos, Melissa Myerly, Garrett Barter, (2014). AN AGENT-BASED MODELING APPROACH TO NON-EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMICS OF NATURAL GAS SUPPLY SHOCK PROPAGATION https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1142135 Publication ID: 40399

Alexander Outkin, Peter Kobos, Garrett Barter, David Borns, (2013). Natural Gas Supply Shock Propagation: An Agent-Based Approach https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1673642 Publication ID: 36389

Alexander Outkin, (2013). Interaction-driven Learning Approaches to Complex Systems Control and Prediction https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1663287 Publication ID: 35107

Alexander Outkin, (2013). Interaction-driven Learning Approaches to Complex Systems Control and Prediction https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1140351 Publication ID: 34850

Andjelka Kelic, Walter Beyeler, Vanessa Vargas, Alexander Outkin, Mark Ehlen, (2013). DECISION FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING THE MACROECONOMIC RISKS AND POLICY IMPACTS OF CYBER ATTACKS Environment System and Decisions (special issue on cybersecurity risk and decisions) https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-013-9479-9 Publication ID: 34864

Alexander Outkin, (2012). On Applications of Hybrid Causal-Learning Systems to Complex Systems and Markets Modeling https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1116184 Publication ID: 31167

Alexander Outkin, (2012). An Agent-based Model of the Nasdaq Stock Market: Historic Validation and Future Directions https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1116453 Publication ID: 30030

Alexander Outkin, (2012). An Agent-based Model of the Nasdaq Stock Market: Historic Validation and Future Directions https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1061108 Publication ID: 30046

Walter Beyeler, Andjelka Kelic, Patrick Finley, Munaf Aamir, Alexander Outkin, Stephen Conrad, Michael Mitchell, Vanessa Vargas, (2012). Creating interaction environments: Defining a two-sided market model of the development and dominance of platforms Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics) https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1111591 Publication ID: 25440

Alexander Outkin, Robert Glass, (2011). Applications of Self-Correcting Hybrid Causal-Learning Systems to Opinion Dynamics on Networks https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1120320 Publication ID: 23459

Patrick Finley, John Linebarger, Alexander Outkin, Stephen Verzi, Nancy Brodsky, Robert Glass, (2011). Extending Opinion Dynamics to Model Public Health Problems and the Evaluation of Policy Interventions https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1106717 Publication ID: 22704

Robert Glass, Aldo Zagonel, Arlo Ames, Theresa Brown, Walter Beyeler, Patrick Finley, John Linebarger, Nancy Brodsky, Stephen Verzi, Alexander Outkin, (2011). Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASoS) Engineering: Mapping Aspirations to Problem Solutions https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1106542 Publication ID: 22783

Patrick Finley, John Linebarger, Alexander Outkin, Stephen Verzi, Nancy Brodsky, Daniel Cannon, Robert Glass, (2011). Extending Opinion Dynamics to Model Public Health Problems and the Evaluation of Policy Interventions https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1120573 Publication ID: 22296

Vanessa Vargas, Nathan Bixler, Alexander Outkin, Prabuddha Sanyal, Shirley Starks, (2011). AN UPDATED ECONOMIC MODEL FOR LEVEL-3 PRA CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS USING MACCS2 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1120891 Publication ID: 21569

Munaf Aamir, Vanessa Vargas, Drake Warren, Haoran Deng, Paula Downes, Mark Ehlen, Alexander Outkin, Mark Pepple, Braeton Smith, Amy Sun, (2010). Economic criticality assessment for chemical facilities https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1032947 Publication ID: 20858

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