Introducing the Photovoltaic Industry Roadmap... Full Speed Ahead

"As we meet tonight, many citizens are struggling with the high cost of energy. We have a serious energy problem that demands a national energy policy…. The [western United States] is confronting a major energy shortage that has resulted in high prices and uncertainty. I have asked federal agencies to work with California officials to help speed construction of new energy sources. And I have directed [the] Vice President, Commerce Secretary, Energy Secretary, and other senior members of my administration to develop a national energy policy…. Our energy demand outstrips our supply. We can produce more energy at home while protecting our environment, and we must. We can produce more electricity to meet demand, and we must. We can promote alternative energy sources and conservation, and we must. America must become more energy independent, and we will."
— President George W. Bush, February 27, 2001

The 21st century brings numerous challenges and opportunities that will affect our nation's energy, economic, and environmental security. Global economic and population growth. Technological advances. Utility restructuring. Greater demand for power quality and reliability. Environmental sensitivities. Global warming. These major driving forces underlie the need — and the opportunity — for improving our nation's systems for generating and delivering energy.

Some of these forces have already affected our nation's energy supply and security. For example, the prices of natural gas and oil have increased dramatically and have exhibited considerable volatility. Electricity restructuring in California has caused enormous increases in electricity prices recently, while during the summer of 1999, stress on the transmission and distribution system caused widespread power outages that affected millions of people and thousands of businesses. Meanwhile, our nation is increasingly reliant on imported fossil fuels.

A comprehensive national energy strategy is required to meet these challenges. Renewable energy will be an important element of an energy portfolio that improves our energy security, preserves our environment, and supports economic prosperity. A portfolio of renewable energy technologies could provide a significant fraction of the nation's electricity generation requirements and, in concert with other generation sources, provide more reliable power.

Significant among the renewable technology options is solar-electric power — specifically photovoltaics (PV), which is a semiconductor technology that converts sunlight directly into electricity. The "photovoltaic effect" produces direct-current (DC) electricity, while using no moving parts, consuming no fuel, and creating no pollution.

Solar-electric power is ideally suited to be a major contributor to an emerging national energy portfolio. The U. S. electrical grid will increasingly rely on distributed energy resources in a competitive market to improve reliability and moderate distribution and transmission costs and on-peak price levels. Distributed power also allows greater customer choice — for example, some consumers place great value on power reliability or clean power, as well as on low energy cost. In addition, many regions of the United States are becoming limited by transmission capacity and local emission controls. Solar-electric power addresses these issues because it is easily sited at the point of use with no environmental impact. Moreover, because sunlight is widely available, the United States can build a solar-electric infrastructure that is geographically diverse and less vulnerable to international energy politics and volatile markets based on fossil fuels.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that 3000 GW of new capacity will be required globally by 2020, valued at around $3 trillion; IEA also projects that the fastest-growing sources of energy will be supplied by renewables.¹ Much of this new capacity will be installed in developing nations where solar-electric power is already competitive. Clearly, the nation that can capture a leadership position has the potential for substantial economic returns.

The United States has long been the world's leader in photovoltaic research, technology, manufacturing, and sales. But other countries have awakened to the potential of photovoltaics and its rapidly growing markets. These countries are accelerating their own efforts to secure dominant technologies and global market share. Consequently, over the past few years, the United States has lost its dominant market share and now risks losing its lead in developing and commercializing technology. If we do not rise to the challenge of reestablishing a leadership position, then our domestic PV industry — which includes U. S.-based manufacturers, distributors, and installers — will continue to lose technology leadership, market share, jobs,² and revenues. We will be importing PV products to meet domestic demands for electricity — a position similar to the one we are in regarding petroleum.

We in the U. S.-based PV industry are working hard to meet growing market demand, confront increasing foreign competition, and build a stronger leadership position, because we realize the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits of a large and profitable PV industry within the United States. To do so, we have devised a unified industry roadmap with a vision and long-term strategies, goals, and targets through 2020. We have held two high-level meetings — the first in Chicago and the second in Dallas — in the past year to collectively develop this strategy.

Export markets —for example, village power in remote areas of the world — are significant and represent a substantial portion of current sales for our industry. These markets will continue to be a major part of the sales and marketing strategies of our PV industry. But because of the importance of solar-electric technology to the interests of the United States and the domestic consumer, it is imperative to develop a plan that clearly identifies our domestic markets as a major target for growth, sales, and consumer use.

Our roadmap will help to guide U. S. photovoltaic research, technology, manufacturing, applications, market development, and policy through 2020. Its success will depend on the direction, resources, scientific and technological approaches, and continued efforts of the "best and the brightest" among industry, the federal government, research organizations, and our educational institutions.

1 IEA's World Energy Outlook 2001, Executive Summary
(See www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo)

2 Currently, our expanding U. S. PV industry directly employs some 20,000 people and indirectly supports more than 100,000 jobs. See M. Renner, "Energy Alternatives and Jobs," Renewable Energy World, November-December 2000, 27-32; Solar Electric Industries Association, Solar Jobs for Today & Tomorrow
(See www.seia.org/).

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