NISAC Project Reports

NISAC project reports are internal to the DHS Office of Infrastructure Protection, and have limited distribution. Requests for access should be made to the NISAC Center Director; an email link is available on the Contact page.

2008 NISAC Project Reports

Global Financial System Report, in editing

Agriculture Case Study Report, in production

2008 Post-hurricane-Season Review, 3/6/2009

SIERRA (Intermodal Transportation) Model Documentation and Testing Report, 11/20/2008 (model documentation); 3/3/2009 (final report)

Chemical Supply-Chain Model Documentation & Results Review, 2/17/2009 (draft)

Scenario Analysis of NMSZ Earthquake Impacts to Infrastructures and the Economy, 2/8/2009; 3/3/2009 final

Potential Impacts of a Major New Madrid Earthquake on the Natural Gas Sector: Analysis Summary Report and Model Documentation report, 2/8/2009; 3/3/2009 final

Chemical Industry Review Workshop, 11/17/2008

Food Defense Risk Paper, 10/3/2008, Revised 10/20/2008

Transportation Corridors Analysis - Canada, 7/31/2008

Transportation Corridors Analysis - Mexico, 7/31/2008

Pipeline Place Names Memo, 7/31/2008

Revised 2007 New Madrid Seismic Zone Report, 6/17/2008

Capability Gaps Review, 6/10/2008

Pre-season Hurricane Scenario Analysis Report for Corpus Christi, TX, 5/30/2008, Revised 6/30/2008

Pre-season Hurricane Scenario Analysis Report for Mid-Atlantic (update), 4/29/2008

2007 Post-hurricane-Season Review, 2/5/2008

NISAC Enbridge Pipeline Whitepaper, 11/30/2007

2007 NISAC Project Reports

International Movement of Containerized Freight and Connections to the Domestic Freight Transportation System, 1/20/2008

Impact of a Large Earthquake in the New Madrid Seismic Zone on National Energy Infrastructure, 12/31/2007

Review of Pandemic Influenza, NISAC Summary of Internal Documentation for Dynamic Simulation Models: Telecom Operations, Natural Gas, National Petroleum and Port Operations, 12/21/2007

Analysis and Modeling of Dams and Dam Systems, 12/21/2007

Chemical Industry Project: Capability Report 2007, 11/27/2007

Impacts of Pandemic Influenza-induced Workforce Absenteeism on the Transportation Sector: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 11/27/2007

Congestion and Cascades in Coupled Payment Systems, 11/2/2007

Congestion and Cascades in Coupled Payment Systems: Programmatic Summary of the Current Study

Design of Community Containment for Pandemic Influenza with Loki-Infect: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Impact of Pandemic Influenza-Induced Labor Shortages on the Food Production/Distribution System: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Economic Impacts of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Manufactured Foods Industry: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Economic Modeling for the Analysis of Pandemic Influenza: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Impacts on National Infrastructure: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Analysis of Selected Intervention Strategies for Pandemic Influenza: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

Modeling and Analysis of Pandemic Influenza Impacts on Telecommunications Operations: Supplement to the National Population and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza Report, 10/15/2007

National Population Economic and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza with Strategic Recommendations, 10/10/2007

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Post-Event Evaluation of Predicted Impacts to Critical Infrastructures, 6/14/2007

Post-Katrina Comparative Economic Analysis of the Chemicals, Food and Goodyear Value Chains, 2/2007

Telecom Critical Infrastructure Simulations: Discrete Event Simulation vs. Dynamic Simulation How Do They Compare?

Power, Telecommunications and Emergency Services in a Converged Network World

High Level Internet Modeling Physica A

2006 NISAC Project Reports

REAcct 1.0: an Initial Methodology for Estimating and Reporting Economic Impacts, Lory Cooperstock, Mark A. Ehlen and Verne W. Loose, Computational Economics Group, 10/24/2006

Congestion and Cascades in Payment Systems, Walt Beyeler, Robert J. Glass, Morten Bech, Kimmo Soramaki, 9/30/2006

Multi-Modal Transportation and Commodity Flow Modeling in N-ABLE, Computational Economics Group, 9/2006

NISAC 2006, compilation of history, capabilities, and plans for DHS presentation to Congress and other agencies, updated 8/25/2006

Design of Targeted Social Distancing Strategies for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass, Walter E. Beyeler, H. Jason Min, 8/10/2006

The North American Natural Gas Infrastructure: How Vulnerable is it to Natural Disasters, and what are the Options for Consequence Mitigation?  7/7/2006

Electric Power Transformers: Does Their Vulnerability Pose a Threat to the US Power Grid?, 4/5/2006

US Rail Asset/Commodity Disruption Analysis, Initial Assessment, 3/2006

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Post-Event Evaluation of Predicted Impacts to Critical Infrastructures, 2/2/2006

2005 NISAC Project Reports

NISAC National Hazards Analysis Plan for FY06, 12/21/2005, updated 4/7/2006

Local Mitigation Strategies for Pandemic Influenza, Robert J. Glass, Laura M. Glass, and Walter E. Beyeler, 12/21/2005, SAND 2005-7955J

An Agent Model of Agricultural Commodity Trade: Developing Financial Market Capability within the NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE™), NISAC Project Report, November 7, 2005.

Improving Agent Behavioral Modeling in N-ABLE™, NISAC Project Report, November 7, 2005.

Reference SCADA Model Analysis Report, NISAC Project Report, November 2005.
By building a System Dynamics model of a general SCADA system, NISAC has developed the ability to understand how SCADA system can either propagate or mitigate the disruptions. This paper describes SCADA systems in general and the usefulness of having a more refined SCADA module embedded in System dynamic models.

U.S Chemical Industry Analysis, NISAC Project report, October 2005.
An analysis of the U.S. chemical industry, its structure, operations, consequences of disruptions, and potential policy impacts to characterize the chemical sector, identify model requirements and establish a chemical sector level modeling capability.

Methodology for Asset Prioritization, NISAC Project Report - September 2005
 In 2005, development began on a general framework for risk-based analysis of infrastructure for prioritization and resource allocation.  A key benefit of the framework is utilization of the numerous information sources and models available to inform DHS prioritization.  Use of the framework will decrease subjectivity and provide a logical and defensible rationale for allocation of resources in an uncertain environment.

Banking and Finance, NISAC Project Report, June 2005.
This study identifies those disruptions to the U.S. Banking and Finance Industry that would be most significant, and helps understand the processes that might create or prevent them, and the events that might initiate disruptive processes or interfere with stabilizing processes.

Air Transport Optimization Model (ATOM), NISAC Project Reports, May 2005, September 2005
Two reports describing the mathematical formulation and modeling approach, including relevant data, model formulations, and illustrative examples for air transportation contingency planning.

How Do We Increase Port Security Without Imperiling Maritime Commerce? Using Simulators and Workshops to Begin the Discussion, May 2003

Global Disruption of Crude Oil Tanker Fleet, NISAC Project report, March 2005.
This report considers the possibility that modest disruptions to global seaborne shipments of crude oil could have a disproportionately large economic impact to the U.S.

Estimating the Economic Impacts of Infrastructure Disruptions to the U.S. Chlorine Supply Chain: Simulations using the NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLETM), NISAC Project Report, March 8, 2005.
Chlorine is vital to the U.S. economy but extremely hazardous to human health. This report presents an analysis of disruption impacts on all 3,300 chlorine-related firms in the U.S.

ORCA – Contingency Planning for Passenger Air Transportation: Flight Schedule Contingency Planning Model (CPM), January 23, 2005
Report describing the mixed integer programming formulation for the restoration of commerical air transportation service under the loss of substantial airport capacity.

Estimating the Impacts of Residential Real-Time Pricing Contracts: A Case Study of California NISAC Project Report, 1/4/2005

Influenza Analysis Report, NISAC Project report, January 2005
This report is a look-ahead for DHS and to build our library and understanding of disease issues in the news (vaccine shortage and concerns over potential pandemics). Models used for this analysis included: CIP/DSS public health and disease modules, Poly-Net and a discrete event model.

2004 NISAC Project Reports

NISAC Agent-Based Laboratory for Economics (N-ABLE): Overview of Agent and Simulation Architectures - October 2004
Documentation of the agent architecture for running large-scale simulations, the economic agent classes that allow for creating microeconomic entities of varying resolution, and the simulation environment that allows for automated large-scale simulation.

Urban Areas Funding: Analysis and Recommendations - October 22, 2004
Under the Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) needed to distribute approximately $800 million to major urban areas in FY05 for threat protection. Distribution of these funds requires the development of a formula for equitable apportionment that must be both comprehensible and defensible. At the request of DHS, Sandia National Laboratories undertook an analysis of the formulation then under development.

Western Gulf Coast Analysis Project – Workshop Report, September 14, 2004

Western Gulf Coast Infrastructure Interdependency Analysis, NISAC Project Report, October 2004.
Analysis and simulation results for the Western Gulf Coast Infrastructure Interdependency Analysis. This report compares consequences of disruptions in regional and national infrastructures, loss of single petroleum infrastructure assets and the effects of distributed storage on the consequences of crude oil import disruptions.

Material Flow Impact Analysis - Assessing the Impacts of Changes in Rail Transportation Policy, NISAC Project Report, March 2004.
Assessed the impact to the flow of specific materials on the U.S. rail system if the flow of these materials was limited. The impact for this study will be measured by the relative increase in travel distance along major rail lines and the associated increase in transportation costs. These costs will be used to assess the regional economic impact, as well as the possible impact to suppliers and/or consumers in the impacted areas.

Advanced Simulation for Analysis of Critical Infrastructure: Abstract Cascades, the Electric Power Grid, and Fedwire, NISAC Project Report, March 2004.

Analyses of the Pacific Northwest Regional Economy, N-ABLE Economic Analysis Team, 2007

The Effects of Residential Real-Time Pricing Contracts on Transco Loads, Pricing, and Profitability: Simulations using the N-ABLE Agent-Based Model, January 13, 2004
Investigation of the effects of price elasticity in residential power use sectors, particularly during peak-price hours of the day.

2003 NISAC Project Reports

Analysis of the Pacific Northwest Regional Economy, NISAC Project Report, November 2003

Economic and Public Health and Safety Impacts of Disruptions in Chlorine Transport, NISAC Project Report, August, 2003.

Transportation Agent Literature Review, NISAC Project Report, 2003

Defining research and development directions for modeling and simulation of complex, interdependent adaptive infrastructures, Glass, R.J., W.E. Beyeler, S.H. Conrad, N.S. Brodsky, P.G. Kaplan, T.J. Brown, SAND 2003-1778P

How Do We Increase Port Security Without Imperiling Maritime Commerce? Using Simulators and Workshops to Begin the Discussion, NISAC Project Report, May 2003

Infrastructure Interdependency and Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Sectors in the Western Electric Coordinating Council (WECC) region, Project report to DOE OEA, November 18, 2002

Analysis of the Potential Economic Impacts of Electric Power Outages in California, Project Report to DOE/OCIP, 2001/2004.
In response to actual or potential releases of liquefied elemental chlorine, intermittent or temporary disruptions of chlorine transport may be imposed.  This report identifies the impacts of disruption and their potential duration.