National Petroleum Simulator

The National Petroleum Model is a detailed model of the dynamics of the petroleum, fuel refining and primary fuel distribution system, developed in 2004 for the Western Gulf Coast Regional Analysis. Data and information on system operations, capacities and alternatives were gathered from the technical literature and industry experts.

The initial analyses conducted with the model indicate that the storage characteristics of the petroleum system, which has storage facilities along the entire supply chain, could allow it to withstand large scale, temporary disruptions in the import of crude oil and refined products. However, the risk management characteristics of the refiners and other system operations will tighten supplies within a day or two of the disruptive event if the duration of the event is unknown.  Disruptions to major crude oil pipelines have more immediate effects on operations, but alternative supplies and stores of refined product and crude oil can offset temporary disruptions to a major crude oil pipeline.

The model has been used to evaluate the potential impacts of the loss of crude oil tankers, disruptions to petroleum assets (refineries, pipelines, port facilities) and to estimate the potential for regional supply shortages following Hurricanes. The National Petroleum model has been extended for analysis of impacts due to a New Madrid Seismic Zone event.